Twave east of the Antillies

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HUC
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Twave east of the Antillies

#1 Postby HUC » Sat Jul 10, 2004 11:19 am

The T Wave near 56°Ouest show an interresting wind shift from N Est to S Est,and some convection bulding up at that time Certainly rain,and gusty winds for the central and northen chain are to forecast ...
Any thoughts?
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rbaker

t wave east of antillies

#2 Postby rbaker » Sat Jul 10, 2004 11:32 am

t storm activity has increased again this morning, but westerlies are still in the area at least until it gets over near north of the virgins. Plus, there is some dry air in region, but seems to be less than yesterday. :eek:
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    #3 Postby HUC » Sat Jul 10, 2004 11:45 am

    No more SAL in my location at this time,and winds NEst.
    I think the activity should increase this PM,and the main energy should passed to the north of the islands to morrow.
    Wait and see!!!
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    #4 Postby MortisFL » Sat Jul 10, 2004 12:45 pm

    Is this the same wave we've been monitoring since emerging from Africa?
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    #5 Postby jabber » Sat Jul 10, 2004 12:53 pm

    yes it is

    MortisFL wrote:Is this the same wave we've been monitoring since emerging from Africa?
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    #6 Postby MortisFL » Sat Jul 10, 2004 12:59 pm

    Interesting.. maybe its ready to take off (strengthen) now.
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    Anonymous

    #7 Postby Anonymous » Sat Jul 10, 2004 1:13 pm

    Not for the next 24 hours anyway---still being sheared :(

    Code: Select all

     TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM
    22N50W TO 13N55W 3N56W MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES
    TO BE WELL DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A LARGE SW/NE
    ELONGATED CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
    CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 50N-55W...AND FROM 13N-16N
    BETWEEN 55W-60W.   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
    BE LIMITED BY UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

    SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
    PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
    ATLANTIC FROM W AFRICA TO FLORIDA SINCE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
    IS N OF 30N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS A  CUT-OFF CYCLONIC
    CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 25N72W. 
    CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
    OVER S GEORGIA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
    30N-32N BETWEEN 77W-79W.  MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
    IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N57W.  THIS SYSTEM IS
    PRODUCING WESTERLY SHEER ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE
    LEEWARD ISLANDS.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES W AFRICA
    AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-35N EAST OF 30W.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
    AXIS IS ALONG 28N BETWEEN 1W-30W. 
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    #8 Postby MortisFL » Sat Jul 10, 2004 1:47 pm

    I can wait 24 hours... :)
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    Rainband

    #9 Postby Rainband » Sat Jul 10, 2004 1:50 pm

    They can't seem to drop this feature. Maybe thats a sign :roll: Do they normally use wording such as this when they are watching something??
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    #10 Postby MortisFL » Sat Jul 10, 2004 2:45 pm

    Hope so...I need something to track. :D
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    #11 Postby TS Zack » Sat Jul 10, 2004 2:48 pm

    Me too I am bored!!!! I live in the New Orleans Area and we just got slammed with heavy rain and flooding so I am not all that bored.
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    #12 Postby MortisFL » Sat Jul 10, 2004 2:53 pm

    lucky you...you'd think it would rain more here in West FL...uh-UH!...at least not now anyway.
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    last few frames interesting ...

    #13 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sat Jul 10, 2004 4:52 pm

    In the last couple of visible satellite shots, you can see a few batches of new convection going up right around where I'm guessing the "center" of this wave is. Previously, most of the thunderstorms were firing off to the NE -- most likely due to divergence on the right side of the upper level low.

    Maybe I've just been watching this thing for too darn long! :) But it's possible the wave could develop further if it can keep generating convection over that presumed center (around 16N 57W or so)
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    #14 Postby MortisFL » Sat Jul 10, 2004 5:13 pm

    islands are about to get some rain from it...
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    chadtm80

    #15 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Jul 10, 2004 5:14 pm

    If you look closely at the loops you can see the Sheer hitting it hard
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    #16 Postby The Dark Knight » Sat Jul 10, 2004 7:45 pm

    If it holds together until the shear goes away, then it will get interesting.....
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    #17 Postby MortisFL » Sat Jul 10, 2004 9:50 pm

    starting to flare up a bit now..
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    #18 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jul 10, 2004 10:14 pm

    Too much junk in the Carib. trunk for this wave. Sorry guys but I just don't see any chances out there for this wave. The current convection is mostly UL divergence enhanced by the ULL to the north. Maybe something to watch once it gets in the western Carib.

    Looking like July maybe quiet after all.
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    Rainband

    #19 Postby Rainband » Sat Jul 10, 2004 10:17 pm

    Patience is the key. Be careful what we wish for. :eek: The season is young :wink:
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