Atlantic averages for July

[senorpepr]

Based on 30-year climatology (from 1974-2003)...

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC
JULY AVERAGES

     --30 YRS--
     ##  AVG/YR 
TS   35   1.17
HR   10   0.33
MHR  01   0.03

TS is based on storms of GTE 35KT
HR is based on storms of GTE 65KT
MHR is based on storms of GTE 100KT


[HurricaneBill]

I'm guessing the major hurricane was Bertha in 1996.

I think the reason many are thinking the season is a bust is because we had an early hurricane last year (Claudette).

::tries to think of the 10 July hurricanes in the past 30 years::

I was able to think of the first 4. I looked up the rest.

1. Bertha 1996
2. Danny 1997
3. Claudette 2003
4. Danny 2003
5. Blanche 1975
6. Bob 1979
7. Bob 1985
8. Bertha 1990
9. Cesar 1996
10. Bill 1997

Here's how their seasons turned out:

1975: 8 named storms
1979: 8 named storms
1985: 11 named storms
1990: 14 named storms
1996: 13 named storms
1997: 7 named storms
2003: 16 named storms

[Aquawind]

Floridians..you have been warned!

http://vh40039.vh4.infi.net/news/local_ ... icane.html

[senorpepr]

I'm guessing the major hurricane was Bertha in 1996.

I think the reason many are thinking the season is a bust is because we had an early hurricane last year (Claudette).

Bingo... Bertha is the only major hurricane to form in July in the past 30 years.

I wouldn't say that the only reason folks think this season is a bust is because of Claudette. Over the past several years I've noticed this trend. When there's a slow start to the season, although very typical, people start to panic.

Another thing folks like to do is over-forecast waves during this climatologically slow period. Statistically we would have had Alex form a few days ago. (Note: July 8 is the average day for the first named storm to form based on the first storms to form from 1974 to 2003. This does not mean this is a slow season.) However, with the way some people have been jumping on waves, we would have had Claudette by now.

I simply post the data from the first message to give folks another reminder of what the averages are. Climatology is a good basis for the future. It's even better when applied to additional meteorological data.

Now to an interesting July...