A surprise forecast of a below average peak of season ASO

[cycloneye]

http://iri.columbia.edu/forecast/tc_fcs ... n2004.html

ASO meaning (August,September and October) the heart of the season and this outlook was provided to me by a pro met in Costa Rica Convectivo a new member of storm2k.

http://iri.columbia.edu/forecast/tc_fcs ... n2004.html

Also this is the eastern pacific outlook from them and they say it will be a normal season there.


Read it and any comments are welcomed.

[Steve H.]

See you all next year

[Rainband]

One study does not determine a season

[cycloneye]

I am only posting what the Costa Rican pro met sended me by PM as I dont buy what they are saying there.

[Anonymous]

Agree, I disagree as well

[MWatkins]

Just based on this paragraph...it looks like their whole prediction sceme is based on a weak nino setting in ASAP:

This forecast is consistent with the warm tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), offsetting the enhancing effects of the normal SSTs in the northern tropical Atlantic, as shown in our SST forecast.

Here's their forecast for SSTs:

http://iri.columbia.edu/forecast/sst/04 ... l2004.html

So either they think a nino will lower Atlantic frequency...or that relatively positive temp anoms across the entire Pacific will create unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic.

I've heard about Nino's effects...but I have never heard that a warm overall Pacific in and of itself is a bad thing for the Atlantic.

I believe this forecast is highly suspect and too dependant on SST's in both basins.

MW

[cycloneye]

Yes MW I noticed that they concentrate too much on the ssts and ENSO.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

Are they looking at this map above that shows some warming at el nino 3-4 regions and forecasting based on that?.

[HURAKAN]

Every one has an opinion, but I don't believe their opinion is right, they might want a season like that but Mother Nature never care about our will, her will is what counts.

[vacanechaser]

you know, i hear this every year that there is an expected higher than average season... until, bill gray or noaa comes out and says that things are expected to be lower than forecast, then i take it with a grain of salt... last time i checked, bill gray has a pretty good record on these things.... i get emails from a person thinking the season is going to be below average just because there have been no storms to this point... this is typical of an above average year across the atlantic basin... development happens near the peak... take a look at that fact... there has been no development so far... that is a good indication that there has been no troughs digging into the gulf and stalling... for the most part, the troughs and fronts have not made it much further than north carolina along the east coast... typical, classic bermuda high where we could see a real threat to the florida east coast and i think a mid september run up the east coast... lets see what gray says before we write this season off before it ever starts...

[cycloneye]

Bumping this interesting outlook from our friends in Costa Rica that shows a below average peak of the season but they talk too much about ENSO and not about other important factors.Any more comments about it are welcomed.

[hurricanemike]

Too much is heavily weighted on El Nino, which makes their forecast highly suspect and probably a huge bust.

[Agua]

Well, back again for this season. Hi all.

Of course the number of storms from one year should not, in and of itself, have any effect on the number of storms any other year, but there has to be SOME season with a "below average" number of storms or else the average would be higher.

Hope all are doing well.