2:05 TWD concerning tropical wave, Well Defined Mid LC!!!!

[Wnghs2007]

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED 400 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...OR NEAR THE
FRENCH GUIANA/SURINAME BORDER...ALONG 54W S OF 16N MOVING W 20-25
KT. THIS MATCHES EXTREMELY WELL WITH THE CAYENNE SOUNDING WHICH
SHOWS A WAVE PASSAGE BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TODAY...BUT ONLY IN THE
MID-LEVELS BETWEEN 400 AND 700 MB AT LATITUDE 5N. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION RACING TOWARDS THE SRN
WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH TSTMS CLUSTERED CLOSELY NEAR THE CLOUD
CENTER. HOWEVER...THE 09Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS NO LOW-LEVEL CENTER
WITH E/NE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 9.5N-14.5N BETWEEN 55W-59W. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD NWWD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING...THEN
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ERN GREATER ANTILLES EARLY TUE
THROUGH THU
____________________________________________________

There is still no variable LLC as stated but the wave is well organized and looks worthy enough to be upgraded from too weak to T1.0/1.0 But we will have to wait and see if they will give it up in classification. It really depends if it can keep the thunderstorm activity.

Also, on an interesting note, The wave and associated thunderstorm activity is showing some slight signs that it is starting to slow down.

[MWatkins]

Yep...and it should. The models suggest rapid movement for another 12-18 hours...then it will slow down once it gets into the Caribbean.

Another amazing shock...the GFDL dropped the system after 6 hours at 12Z. No point even posting the link.

MW

[Wnghs2007]

Another amazing shock...the GFDL dropped the system after 6 hours at 12Z. No point even posting the link.

MW

LOL The only thing (I have ever seen the GFDL carry and be correct on is Isabel of last year. LOL

[Derecho]

The GFDL is designed for actual tropical cyclones.

It actually does quite well, problem is these INVEST runs make it look bad. It's a job it wasn't designed for.

[yoda]

This may end up being a wave to watch. I sense that we may get our first TD out of this soon, but it is too early to tell. By far, it is the first wave that has some mid-level circulation.

The GFDL is meant more for tropical disturbances.. not INVEST runs.. as Derecho says.

[mf_dolphin]

The GFDL is designed for actual tropical cyclones.

It actually does quite well, problem is these INVEST runs make it look bad. It's a job it wasn't designed for.

Good point Derech. It's hard to hold a model responsible for something it wasn't designed to handle.