While all the attention right now is on the wave approaching the Islands.. I notice the 18Z GFS continues its trend the past several runsof develoing a Low in the NE Gulf in the 7/8 day range.. Possible trof split formation down the road?? Any thoughts on this??
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml
18 Z GFS
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Aquawind
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Could be.. from the verbage on the HPC statement you posted earlier..
OFF THE SE COAST...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO TAKE THE TROP WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 55W WWD INTO THE BAHAMAS WHERE IS MEETS UP WITH THE
TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING LOW LVL BNDRY EARLY IN THE PD. THE 06Z
GFS HAS TRENDED SIG STRONGER WITH THE SFC CIRC HERE AND TAKES A
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW TOWARD THE SC COAST BY THE END OF THE PD.
THIS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OP SOLN...WITH ONLY THE 00Z CAN GLOB
SOMEWHAT NEAR THE 06Z GFS STRENGTH THRU THE END OF ITS FORECAST
PD. THE ECMWF SUPPORTS THE GENERAL PATTERN OF CARRYING THE WAVE TO
THE BAHAMAS THIS PD. THEREFORE...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
THE OP MODELS FOR A SYS. THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEMBS ARE ALL OVER THE
MAP WITH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE SYS THRU THE END OF THE MEDR.
ONLY TWO MEMBS SEEM TO SUPPORT A CLOSED CIRC LIKE THE 06Z GFS BY
DAY 7/MON. THEREFORE...WITH LITTLE CERTAINTY IN THE PSN AND
STRENGTH OF ANY SYS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN UNTIL
COORD WITH TPC.
OFF THE SE COAST...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO TAKE THE TROP WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 55W WWD INTO THE BAHAMAS WHERE IS MEETS UP WITH THE
TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING LOW LVL BNDRY EARLY IN THE PD. THE 06Z
GFS HAS TRENDED SIG STRONGER WITH THE SFC CIRC HERE AND TAKES A
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW TOWARD THE SC COAST BY THE END OF THE PD.
THIS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OP SOLN...WITH ONLY THE 00Z CAN GLOB
SOMEWHAT NEAR THE 06Z GFS STRENGTH THRU THE END OF ITS FORECAST
PD. THE ECMWF SUPPORTS THE GENERAL PATTERN OF CARRYING THE WAVE TO
THE BAHAMAS THIS PD. THEREFORE...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
THE OP MODELS FOR A SYS. THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEMBS ARE ALL OVER THE
MAP WITH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE SYS THRU THE END OF THE MEDR.
ONLY TWO MEMBS SEEM TO SUPPORT A CLOSED CIRC LIKE THE 06Z GFS BY
DAY 7/MON. THEREFORE...WITH LITTLE CERTAINTY IN THE PSN AND
STRENGTH OF ANY SYS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN UNTIL
COORD WITH TPC.
Last edited by Aquawind on Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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rbaker
matter of fact, I just posted a note to another person about the gom about this same thing, although I had not looked that far down the line at the models. In a few days if pressures stay low and this current jet lifts out and convection is still down there, yea things could get interesting esp. for July in the gulf? Remember this is highly unusual to see a pattern like this in July no less. If this was Jan. we probably would be looking a pretty good n'easter going up the coast with a freeze here in northern fl.
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Dean4Storms
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I'm not going to jump on this one yet, but it is something to keep an eye on. The GFS has pulled this one a couple times this summer already.
Here's a good model run of what you are talking about......
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.mrfnhpcp.html
Here's a good model run of what you are talking about......
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.mrfnhpcp.html
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