Sorry to disapoint you guys!

[The_Cycloman_PR]

I know many of you are expecting something out of this wave. But the ULL N/NE of Puerto Rico is way too strong and extend into the Caribbean. It will have strong effects over the wave tomorow and wednesday inhibiting it's development at least for the next 2 days. Maybe when it reach west Caribbean. Patience!! your "hurricane tracking" time will come soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html



ULL too strong for now...

Cycloman

[bahamaswx]

I doubt the ULL is inhibiting development any, if at all. May even be helping our wave's outflow some.

[Air Force Met]

This upper level low will have no negative consequences on development. There are light winds forecast over the entire eastern CAR through 48 hours. THe ULL is too far north and will not impact this system whatsoever. What will impact and inhibit development, however, is the fast foreward motion of the system. The ULL will stay well north of the system and will only serve to ventilate it. The anticyclone to the Bahamas will impact the system with some easterly shear later in the period.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

I doubt the ULL is inhibiting development any, if at all. May even be helping our wave's outflow some.

Sorry my friend but what you're saying it against climatology...(with all my respect of course)

Tropical systems needs a good upper level environment to enhance the ouflow of it's clouds or thunderstorms (a Ridge) The upper level low create a shear effect in the upper levels inhibithing the thunderstorms to gain altitude resulting in weakness of the system. Mean shared appart. The upper level low may affect the system to the northwest of it and move it's thunderstorms to the north and northeast of the wave into the VI and PR creating a showers event for the area tomorow night and wednesday but at the same time stopping the wave from development at least for the time it is south of us in PR.


Final words...The ull is against the wave....

[Opal storm]

I doubt the ULL is inhibiting development any, if at all. May even be helping our wave's outflow some.

Sorry my friend but what you're saying it against climatology...(with all my respect of course)

Tropical systems needs a good upper level environment to enhance the ouflow of it's clouds or thunderstorms (a Ridge) The upper level low create a shear effect in the upper levels inhibithing the thunderstorms to gain altitude resulting in weakness of the system. Mean shared appart. The upper level low may affect the system to the northwest of it and move it's thunderstorms to the north and northeast of the wave into the VI and PR creating a showers event for the area tomorow night and wednesday but at the same time stopping the wave from development at least for the time it is south of us in PR.


Final words...The ull is against the wave....

Yet people will continue to deny it

[The_Cycloman_PR]

This upper level low will have no negative consequences on development. There are light winds forecast over the entire eastern CAR through 48 hours. THe ULL is too far north and will not impact this system whatsoever. What will impact and inhibit development, however, is the fast foreward motion of the system. The ULL will stay well north of the system and will only serve to ventilate it.

What you're saying it's more understandable Maybe I did'nt understand his words...Sorry for that

[Air Force Met]

Opal Storm...that's not entirely correct. While an ULL will shear a system and a system does need an anticyclone aloft...a well placed upper level low will help a tropical system develop (as bahama said) by creating an polar outflow jet which will ventilate the system more efficiently.

The ULL is not against the wave in this case. Take a look at a 200mb chart over the area and you will see nice calm winds over the system with the strong winds associated with the ULL to the north...increasing the outflow of the system...more so than if there was just a anticyclone alone.

(and it's not climo per say...but dynamic meteorology that you are speaking off )

[Air Force Met]

Cyclone...lots of vertical shear right now...that's why it is moving so fast. Not any horizontal upper level shear...that comes in a couple of days.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Opal Storm...that's not entirely correct. While an ULL will shear a system and a system does need an anticyclone aloft...a well placed upper level low will help a tropical system develop (as bahama said) by creating an polar outflow jet which will ventilate the system more efficiently.

The ULL is not against the wave in this case. Take a look at a 200mb chart over the area and you will see nice calm winds over the system with the strong winds associated with the ULL to the north...increasing the outflow of the system...more so than if there was just a anticyclone alone.

(and it's not climo per say...but dynamic meteorology that you are speaking off )

Thanks for correcting me...that's what this forum is for

[Dean4Storms]

I was about to say, the only shear is the LL speed at which the TW is moving. The ULL to the north is doing nothing but helping to vent the convection in the early stages of this system. Nothing but favorable ULL conditions ahead for a couple days. I would include one thing though, it has alot of dry air on it's northern periphery and this could slow development somewhat.

[FWBHurricane]

If im looking at this correctly, the center of that system is barely getting pass Venezuela...atleast one obstical is down but more to come.

[HURAKAN]

Here the problem is not the ULL, the main problem which is completely inhibiting development is the rapid motion of the system.

[MGC]

Actually HURAKAN, a combination of factors are currently working against our TW. The ULL to its north, the TW rapid west movement and some dry air. These three factors will prevent any development in the short term.....MGC

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Actually HURAKAN, a combination of factors are currently working against our TW. The ULL to its north, the TW rapid west movement and some dry air. These three factors will prevent any development in the short term.....MGC

Ohh my God!!! Look to my last reply inside your post...

Are you my Clon????

[MGC]

Great minds think alike...MGC

[The_Cycloman_PR]

[The_Cycloman_PR]

I know many of you are expecting something out of this wave. But the ULL N/NE of Puerto Rico is way too strong and extend into the Caribbean. It will have strong effects over the wave tomorow and wednesday inhibiting it's development at least for the next 2 days. Maybe when it reach west Caribbean. Patience!! your "hurricane tracking" time will come soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html



ULL too strong for now...

Cycloman

Told ya, did'nt I? ULL too strong!

Fast motion speed? Yes...Dry air? Yep... also. Not saying they did'nt played their role against the wave. But ULL=shear and there's the results.

Also in yesterday main post I was saying the ULL will inhibit the wave's development TOMOROW not at that moment, as some understood. The ULL was maybe enhancing the outflow at that time but now is making the contrary, is enlongating the convection from the southwest into the northeast.

I doubt the ULL is inhibiting development any, if at all. May even be helping our wave's outflow some

If you read the main post carefully...

But the ULL N/NE of Puerto Rico is way too strong and extend into the Caribbean. IT WILL have strong effects over the wave tomorow and wednesday inhibiting it's development at least for the next 2 days.

Maybe in two days, or when it reach the Western Caribbean...depending on it's interaction with the ULL, the dry air, and if it loose foward motion speed.

[Air Force Met]

It's still not shearing this wave. Take a look at an upper level chart and you will clearly see that the heart of the wave...where it counts...is still under a weak ridge.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012m.gif

Also...take a look at a water vapor loop. It doesn't matter what the shear is on the outside of the wave...matter of fact...the more the better. That aids ventilation. What matter is what is happening to the latent heat release of convection near the rotational axis of the wave. If you will look at a wv loop and an ir loop right now, you will see that the convection near the center of the wave is not being sheared at all and to the south and SW there is some outflow.

There is no shear where it matters...that is why we say there is no shear. Shear on the northern side of the wave is a good thing because that will ventilate the system. The heart of the wave lies along 13N/63W. IF you look at 12N/65W in the WVl loop you will see cirrus moving west. That means there is a ridge still sitting over the wave. That ridge lasts for another 36 hours or so and then the wave will get easterly shear from the anticyclone over the bahamas...although the westward motion of the system will tend to cancel some of that out.

[The Dark Knight]

I agree.....

[Trader Ron]

Lets hope it bites the dust. I'm on record for Zero storms this month.