From latest sat views the north half of the wave is being infleunced by the ull and keeps breaking off and heading nw while the southern part of the wave keeps heading west firing up and down as typical with these systems. The southern part of the wave being just far enough from the ull s of bermuda, has the best chance of forming in the western caribbean, and then should be slowing down from its current pace. For a wave to have this much cons against it, it's holding up quite well.
Also, in wv imagery a anticyclone has formed over central fla. where a upper low has formed over the western gulf, so the shear of fla esp.central and south fl is nonexistent. Progs and models show a trough later in the week which if strong enough and the disturbance and how strong it is could make a path into the gom or fla. If it stays weak, probably will head into yucatan. Anyway thats my prediction now from all avail data. Anyone think this is a decent conclusion or analysis?
