97L Movement

[DoctorHurricane2003]

For those who are not sure where 97L may go, expect a general continuance of the WNW movement it is currently on. As it approaches the western Caribbean, expect a more north of west movement as it approaches the stationary front....if it doesn't develop soon (likely). If it does develop soon, expect a NW movement earlier, especially if it reaches strong tropical storm strength by 75 W. (Not likely)

[yoda]

This shall be interesting. I like the ships trying to get this to be a CAT 2 by the C Carribean! Like there is a chance of that hapening! But some of this mornings model runs are interesting to say the least...

[The Dark Knight]

Yes they are.....

[HouTXmetro]

I hope this thing survives and makes it into the Gulf. So far this is another wasted hurricane season.

[Aquawind]

Welcome to the board HouTXmetro


Don't worry plenty of time to "salvage" a season for you.. 80% of the activity happens in AUG,SEPT, and OCT sooo lotsa Prime Time ahead..There have been many posts on the board in referrence to the common slow starts and yet very active total numbers..They can come in bunches and probably will this year.

[HouTXmetro]

Welcome to the board HouTXmetro


Don't worry plenty of time to "salvage" a season for you.. 80% of the activity happens in AUG,SEPT, and OCT sooo lotsa Prime Time ahead..There have been many posts on the board in referrence to the common slow starts and yet very active total numbers..They can come in bunches and probably will this year.

Thanks Aqua......

I'm really speaking of the NW Gulf coast. We have not had any serious action in the Houston area in over 20 years "Alicia". And If my analysis serves me correct, (correct me if i'm wrong) August > storms always get turned back east by a front or trough. So if the NW Gulf doesn't get a June-July storm chances are we won't see any. "Maybe next year" is getting real old

[Steve]

Uh, move?

Texas can get storms through September, but the later it gets, the less opportunity for anything (except one cutting very far south) to hit the NW Gulf. Louisiana is generally shut down by about October 15th.

Steve

[lilbump3000]

Never know HouTXmetro this might be your system. It might do what LiLi did in 2002 race across the gulf and intensify rapdily.

[HouTXmetro]

Does anyone know, or know where I can find some info on the probability on a NW Gulf strike by month or how many TC have struck a particular area according to the month?

[stormcloud]

Here is some good info:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/paststate.html

and here is a good paper with plenty of interesting tables:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/index.html

[TropicalWXJustin]

This shall be interesting. I like the ships trying to get this to be a CAT 2 by the C Carribean! Like there is a chance of that hapening! But some of this mornings model runs are interesting to say the least...

Really can't look at the ships untill it develops. Once it develops then u can look at the intensity forcast. Odds are it won't develop untill it reaches the west carribean

[southerngale]

Here is some good info:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/paststate.html

and here is a good paper with plenty of interesting tables:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/index.html

Thanks stormcloud. The first link shows Texas more active during August and September than June or July. (from 1990-1996)
Relax HouTXmetro...ya might get that major cane ya want after all.

[rbaker]

where were you all when Allison hit there two years ago with 30'' of rain. Granted it was a tropical storm, not an Alicia. But sometimes a slow mover, esp. one that comes back towards the coast with massive flooding can be worse than a 15 mph hurricane that moves in a dissapates.