ding-ding-ding WOOF! WOOF!

[Scott_inVA]

I've looked at nothing today except to run the maps.
Very interesting...NOGAPS, Canadian and GFS all are barking a piece of I97 indeed gets pulled north and gets the "pinchers" around the SW side of Atl Ridge. This is *significant* b/c a cold front ahead of 1024 High progged to come down from Canada likely spins a sfc Low along the boundary...with an associated trof slicing the Mid-Atlantic. This, folks, opens the door BIG TIME for a sfc Low off NC as the vort rolls around the Ridge. Sometimes 1 + 1 = 2; if so, this may go.

Not saying this is the deal...but...this is VERY plausible in 5 days.

Scott

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[rbaker]

but will it be tropical by then, if it gets yanked into the trough, shear becomes increased, and then the system becomes embedded as a non tropical low, but some wind and rain like a nor'easter, but only in summer. In fact if you look at wv imagery an forcast models this setup you mentioned, looks like a late fall pattern, not July. But since it is July, it will not be cold that's for sure.

[Stormsfury]

@ work right now without time to look at the model runs, except for Scott's model map. With the GFS/NGP both taking a piece of L97 over Hispanola, there just might not be anything left of it if it crosses the 10,000 ft + mountains.

However, should the "pinch" be applied as described above, well ... things get just a bit more interesting. Stay tuned...

[Scott_inVA]

but will it be tropical by then, if it gets yanked into the trough, shear becomes increased, and then the system becomes embedded as a non tropical low, but some wind and rain like a nor'easter, but only in summer. In fact if you look at wv imagery an forcast models this setup you mentioned, looks like a late fall pattern, not July. But since it is July, it will not be cold that's for sure.

Depends on how big a piece gets up there. As SF accurately notes, very little chance an organized LLC makes it over the Islands. My thinking (again I've looked at nothing else today...just winging it based on models presentation) is a piece heads WNW into Caribbean, a piece lifts out and heads north. This wouldn't be organized...just a blob on sat. I think the norther high (1024, bigger than last week) generates FROPA to NOVA. *IF* there's a boundary Low/trof complex over VA then the energy certainly could transfer to a hybrid coastal Low (GFS' idea) off NC.

Don't just watch tropics...pay very close attention on model runs to size and placement of northern Ridge. If we don't get the pinchers we likely get nothing.

Scott

[Trader Ron]

I'm amazed by the divergence of these Models. Some of them should be put out of business.

[Steve H.]

Hey ScottinVA, you put the tropical model maps up; where did you stick the shp/shps intensity. I used to get that stuff from FSU; can't find it anymore. Thanks in Advance

[Scott_inVA]

Hey ScottinVA, you put the tropical model maps up; where did you stick the shp/shps intensity. I used to get that stuff from FSU; can't find it anymore. Thanks in Advance

Steve,

SHIP/DSHP only renders intensity. No public coordinates so I can't ingest.
You can get the data (when the page actually loads ) at twister.osu:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... ic/models/

Here's the 12Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972004) ON 20040720 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040720 1200 040721 0000 040721 1200 040722 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 63.5W 13.9N 66.3W 14.5N 68.6W 14.9N 70.7W
BAMM 13.0N 63.5W 13.9N 66.8W 14.7N 69.5W 15.3N 71.9W
A98E 13.0N 63.5W 14.1N 67.4W 14.9N 70.6W 15.6N 73.4W
LBAR 13.0N 63.5W 14.1N 67.0W 15.1N 70.3W 15.9N 73.3W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040722 1200 040723 1200 040724 1200 040725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 72.7W 15.4N 76.8W 16.5N 80.7W 17.4N 84.7W
BAMM 15.7N 73.8W 16.3N 76.7W 17.3N 79.8W 18.5N 83.2W
A98E 15.9N 75.6W 17.0N 78.8W 18.0N 81.3W 19.9N 84.4W
LBAR 16.7N 76.2W 18.3N 80.6W 20.9N 82.8W 22.9N 83.7W
SHIP 48KTS 58KTS 68KTS 77KTS
DSHP 48KTS 58KTS 68KTS 77KTS

"Systems" like this the SHIP/DSHP is ROFLMAO!
Scott

[Steve H.]

thanks. Things should get interesting over the next few days.

[The Dark Knight]

I agree, they will............