South Fl vs Tropical wave

[boca]

Any insight on the wave heading to S FL or too early to tell yet?

[rbaker]

too early just yet.

[Opal storm]

Too early for sure but if you ask me I say this is just a fish storm.

[jlauderdal]

Any insight on the wave heading to S FL or too early to tell yet?

If at any point any of the models put it in Sofla at 72hours or beyond than it has little if any chance of hitting us. That has been the pattern the last 5 years and I am sticking with it till the cycle is broken. That rule has worked just as well as any sensible weather.

[Steve H.]

LOL Jlaud, that's why I'm getting a bit concerned. They're really showing it going into the GOM, as per usual If it showed FLorida you could rest easy

[Opal storm]

LOL Jlaud, that's why I'm getting a bit concerned. They're really showing it going into the GOM, as per usual If it showed FLorida you could rest easy

Oh boy...I hope it doesn't enter the Gulf and then turn north towards Pensacola ....... BINGO

[Patrick99]

These waves always have a tendency toward falling apart before they reach us. I hate always having to be a pessimist, but tropical systems have disappointed me way too many times. I remember even as a little kid I was all excited about Hurricane David, but it was NOTHING. As for tropical waves, it seems that more often than not when we are "hit" by a tropical wave, we get nothing but a couple of quickly passing showers.

[wxman57]

LOL Jlaud, that's why I'm getting a bit concerned. They're really showing it going into the GOM, as per usual If it showed FLorida you could rest easy

Oh boy...I hope it doesn't enter the Gulf and then turn north towards Pensacola ....... BINGO

With a mid and upper-level high over the NW Gulf in 4-5 days, wind flow will be from Florida southwest to the Bay of Campeche aloft. That's not a "river" that would carry anything in the NW Caribbean toward Florida.

[jlauderdal]

LOL Jlaud, that's why I'm getting a bit concerned. They're really showing it going into the GOM, as per usual If it showed FLorida you could rest easy

Oh boy...I hope it doesn't enter the Gulf and then turn north towards Pensacola ....... BINGO

With a mid and upper-level high over the NW Gulf in 4-5 days, wind flow will be from Florida southwest to the Bay of Campeche aloft. That's not a "river" that would carry anything in the NW Caribbean toward Florida.

If I am reading this afternoons NWS Melbourne Discussion correctly then they contradict what wxman57 says. I could be reading it wrong.
FRI-TUE...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE STATE OF FRI AS A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. EXTENDED
MODELS ARE BUILDING A STRONG CONTINENTAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL PREVENT THE NEW LOW FROM MAKING A QUICK EXIT INTO THE
ATLC. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE FROM THE T-WAVE EMBEDDED OVER THE
CARIB WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE...SLOWLY WORKING
ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS ERODES...THIS MOSITURE COULD VERY EASILY BEGIN A NW TRACK
ACROSS THE N CARIB BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND SPILL INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROF BY SUN. RESULT WOULD BE A WET WX PATTERN FOR
EAST CENTRAL FL TO START THE WORK WEEK: HIGH MOISTURE AND W/SW FLOW
OVER THE PENINSULA WITH THE TROF SUPRESSING THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO
THE FL STRAITS.

[vbhoutex]

I think you are reading it wrong. It does talk about a W/SW flow over the peninsula which is the same direction Wxman57 is talking about. If I am reading it right there will be plenty of moisture, some of it from the TW that will be producing showers over the peninsula which would be moving W/SW.

What he was referring to was that there won't be a river of air flowing N towards P'cola that would direct the TW that way. that doesn't mean moisture from the system can't make it that way though. JMHO.

[Opal storm]

I was kinda joking about it hitting Pensacola.I really don't think this will make it to the Gulf as an organized tropical system.

[wxman57]

I think you are reading it wrong. It does talk about a W/SW flow over the peninsula which is the same direction Wxman57 is talking about. If I am reading it right there will be plenty of moisture, some of it from the TW that will be producing showers over the peninsula which would be moving W/SW.

What he was referring to was that there won't be a river of air flowing N towards P'cola that would direct the TW that way. that doesn't mean moisture from the system can't make it that way though. JMHO.

That discussion is talking about part of the moisture from the wave being drawn north across DR/Eastern Cuba and up the front. I agree with that. But the wave will continue on westward. The discussion didn't mention mid-upper flow across the SE Gulf by the time the wave approaches the southern/central Yucatan in 4-5 days. There's an upper high building over the NW Gulf by then. Check out the upper flow by 4 days out:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096m.gif

And 500mb (high over south LA)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096m.gif

So it'll be hard for anything reaching the NW Caribbean to turn north into the Gulf. And there may not be much left of this thing by then.