Ah Houston......Shear is now a problem. :-(

[Wnghs2007]

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W S OF 19N MOVING W 20-25 KT.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE WAVE SPEED HAS DECREASED DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS...TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED OWING TO
INCREASING SW SHEAR. THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION IS EVIDENT IN
EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH OUTWARD PROPAGATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE W PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.
ALSO...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS CONCENTRATED WITH
A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION MOVING RAPIDLY NWD OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE E CARIBBEAN FROM
12N-20N BETWEEN 61W-67W. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
WESTWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT BECOME
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ALONG THE N EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SW SHEAR

[Air Force Met]

Shear over this system is really not that big of a problem. The vertical shear is the problem and you can see it with the sfc reflection. There was a decent trof yesterday but the fast forward motion has pretty much wiped that out and it is almost straight easterly flow now. If you look at a wv loop over the heart of the system...15n/65w...there is not a lot of shear at all. There is out ahead of it...but not right over it. The problem is that 25 kt movement....hence why the dfc reflection has almost dissipated...and with the sfc convergence almost gone...the tstms are almost gone.

[KatDaddy]

I still think the TW has potential as it move into the W and NW Caribbean however it definitly has some work ahead to survive. The last few frames of the WV loop still shows slight rotation in the mid levels however its plowing into SW shear. If it can hold together and move further W toward Jamaica conditions will improve