As expected, our TW has not become better organized today. The ULL to its north is still shearing it. Convection comes and goes but that is to be expected of a TW. Currently the TW is transiting the "zone of tropical death" or the eastern half of the Carribean Sea which is well known for its limited TC formations. The key to this waves future development are:
A: the wave has to slow its forward speed. This should start happening soon. It will have a difficult time closing off a circulation moving rapidly.
B: the wave must remain south of the Greater Antillies. Any circulation that developes would be destroyed by the mountains of Hispanola or eastern Cuba.
C: wind shear must abate.
If these three conditions are meet by the time the TW reaches the western Carribean then the probility of development will increase. The earliest I see a potential depression forming is Thursday afternoon. Currently I estimate the probility of a depression formation at 25%.
If a depression does indeed form then I expect said TC to enter the southern GOM near the weekend........MGC
TW current thoughts....
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MGC
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TW current thoughts....
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Dean4Storms
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