the little wave that could...

[frederic79]

A tropical wave that would eventually be named Claudette moved westward from the coast of Africa on 1 July. The wave first showed signs of convective organization on 6 July. By 7 July satellite imagery indicated sufficient organization to possibly classify the system as a tropical depression near the Windward Islands. However, the wave was moving westward at 20-25 kt at the time, and neither surface observations nor an investigation flight by the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicated that the system had a closed circulation. The aircraft did report flight-level winds of tropical-storm force north of the vorticity maximum that passed near Barbados and St. Lucia.

The wave continued rapidly westward with a further increase in organization. Satellite intensity estimates suggested the system was near tropical storm strength by 1500 UTC 8 July. However, a second investigative flight could not find a closed center at that time. Finally, near 1800 UTC the plane found a small area of southwesterly winds and a pressure of 1006 mb and classified the wave as tropical storm Claudette. The storm continued quickly westward through 9 July, then it turned northwestward with some deceleration on the next day. A continued northwestward motion brought it to its first landfall, on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico near 1000 UTC 11 July.

During this period, Claudette underwent two notable fluctuations in intensity. The first occurred around 0300-0400 UTC 9 July, when flight-level winds reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft northeast of the center suggested that it might have reached hurricane strength. Subsequent data shortly thereafter showed much lower winds, and it is estimated that the storm did not become a hurricane at that time.

A second noteworthy sequence of intensity changes occurred on 10 July. An increase in convective organization and strengthening began between 0000-0600 UTC. A Hurricane Hunter flight near 1200 UTC reported a 10-n mi wide eye (also apparent in visible and microwave satellite imagery), along with flight-level winds, dropsonde winds, and pressures that indicated this storm had become a hurricane. The cyclone maintained hurricane intensity through 1600 UTC. The central core then completely collapsed during the next two hours. The aircraft could not fix the center at 1800 UTC due to the poor definition of both the wind field and the convective pattern. While it is possible the aircraft did not sample the maximum winds on the attempted 1800 UTC penetration, rapid weakening was clearly underway.

Claudette then proceeded to become very disorganized. The center became broad and poorly defined, and multiple low-level centers were seen several times in satellite imagery between 1800 UTC 10 July and 0000 UTC 12 July. The convection was displaced well to the north and east by southwesterly shear, with aircraft and ship data indicating tropical storm-force winds in the convective area. Much of the motion during this time may be due to reformation of the center caused by convective bursts. The best track shows 45-50 kt winds during this period, but there is much greater than normal uncertainty about both the winds and the central pressure due to the disorganized nature of the storm.

The storm moved northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico on 11 July. A north-northwestward jog occurred on 12 July while the storm became a little better organized. The storm meandered erratically northwestward on 13 July, then turned northward later that day. These track changes were likely due to a combination of 1) weakening of a mid/upper-level ridge along the northern Gulf coast caused by a developing trough over the eastern United States, and 2) reformation of the center caused by strong but asymmetric convection to the northeast. This change in motion was accompanied by some decrease in the shear, and while the center remained mostly exposed, Claudette slowly and unsteadily strengthened on 13 July.

A building deep-layer ridge over the western United States and the western Gulf coast states forced Claudette to gradually turn west-northwestward late on 14 July. This brought the storm to an area of lighter shear, which allowed an eyewall to form and for Claudette to again become a hurricane at 0600 UTC 15 July. A faster west-northwestward motion brought the center of Claudette to the Texas coast at Matagorda Island (just east of Port O'Connor) at 1530 UTC that day. Strengthening continued up to landfall, with estimated maximum winds increasing to 80 kt and the central pressure falling to 979 mb.

No two storms are identical. I just found this interesting because Claudette, at times, also looked like a sure goner. I'm not ready to right this wave off just yet...
Thoughts?
[/b]

[Yankeegirl]

You know, I remember that storm, since I live in Houston... I remember not hearing much about it on the news and I woke up on Saturday morning to the sound of my weather radio going off telling us that we had a tropical storm coming this way... I was a huge surprise to me, since the local mets really didnt say too much about it the night before.. I was shocked.. I went to Walmart and got some things just in case, that store was PACKED! There werent too many batteries or flashlights left.. Luckily it drifted to the south of us, and we really didnt see much of anything... Just some rain and some wind... I still have my lanterns and flashlights... Maybe this year?







Lisa

[bahamaswx]

The atmospheric conditions when Claudette passed through the E. Caribbean are very dissimilar to what we are seeing now.

[PTrackerLA]

You know, I remember that storm, since I live in Houston... I remember not hearing much about it on the news and I woke up on Saturday morning to the sound of my weather radio going off telling us that we had a tropical storm coming this way... I was a huge surprise to me, since the local mets really didnt say too much about it the night before.. I was shocked.. I went to Walmart and got some things just in case, that store was PACKED! There werent too many batteries or flashlights left.. Luckily it drifted to the south of us, and we really didnt see much of anything... Just some rain and some wind... I still have my lanterns and flashlights... Maybe this year?







Lisa

Speaking of flashlights. I remember back to Hurricane Earl which was initially supposed to hit Louisiana as we were under a hurricane warning. I bought quite a few flashlights, tons of batteries, plywood and water. The storm of course went well east of here but in 2002 I got good use of these items with Lili, saving me time from the packed stores. Moral of story, always good to be prepared.

[Anonymous]

Prepared is good. I have nothing prepared for this year yet. I used all my stuff during Claudette last year and never replaced it. I guess I should get to doing that soon.