So much for the model maps!!

[hial2]

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

It appears it ain't gonna make the predicted sharp right over Hispanola...or go straight into CA either..

Down the middle of both solutions.. GOM bound??

[wxman57]

Actually, both tracks look correct. Global models track part of the wave (moisture) north over DR and into the Atlantic. That looks good. But the wave itself may continue moving west toward the southern Yucatan, as the tropical models indicate. A track down the middle isn't as likely, as mid to upper-level winds over the SE Gulf and NE Caribbean will be from the NE-ENE in a few days. That should prevent movement toward the northern Yucatan or eastern Cuba. This is due to a ridge developing over the LA coast.

[Derecho]

The map there is pretty old.

Anyway, actually, IMHO, this system was never ACTUALLY shown going up the east coast on any of the models that supposedly showed it; looking at the vorticity maps only in the most vague sense could a tiny piece of vorticity from the weak wave depicted on them be considered to be drawn up north;

On Scott's maps the global model tracks are basically done by hand looking at maps and marking it; I personally would not have have put the UKMET, CMC, AVN tracks on there, because really, no actual "system" wholly derived from this wave was shown by those models following those tracks.

The only two model tracks worth anything on the map are the BAMD and BAMM. (Realize that's not what people want to hear, but, oh well.)

Despite the prattlings of Cosgrove et. al, whatever low forms off the East Coast in a few days is going to be induced by the standard non-tropical jetstream stuff, primarily, and have very little to do with this wave.

Anyway, there was a new run of the NHC models a couple hours ago (odd time for a run, indicative of a suspicion of an LLC) and the 2 that aren't worthless (BAMM for sheared or very weak storms, and BAMD for all others) have the storm plowing into Belize.

And clearly implies that it never actually enters the GOM.

[Aquawind]

Hmmm. NWS in Tampa still thinks it's reaches the GOM..Miami has Cuba..Seems like the southern track is likely..
...

Tampa..

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-MON)...THE BIGGEST CHANGE SEEN IN THE MODELS
COMES SUN-TUES. PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER SE
U.S. WITH A WEAK SFC LOW/INVERTED TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE NCENT
GULF. LATEST RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE SE U.S. AND NOW SEEM TO FOCUS ON BRINGING A WAVE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SE GULF BY MON AND TUES. THIS FEATURE
SEEMS TO BE THE SAME WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULT OF THE LATEST SOLUTION IS THAT LOW LEVEL
SYNOPTIC WINDS ARE NOW WEAK SE...RATHER THAN SW. THIS WOULD CHANGE
THE TIMING OF CONVECTION BACK TOWARD AFTN/EVENING...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS TOWARD THE SSE...AND KEPT AFTN
POPS IN THE 40-50% (NEAR CLIMO) RANGE FOR NOW. THIS SCENARIO MAY BE
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WAS FEARED WITH THE DEEP SW FLOW FROM EARLY RUNS.

Miami....


GFS HAVING A FAIRLY GOOD INITIALIZATION...AT LEAST WHEN IT COMES TO
POSITION...WITH TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS ERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF ERN
HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...IT BRINGS THE WAVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA/CUBA BY FRI EVENING...WHICH MEANS THAT THE WAVE WOULD HAVE TO
DECREASE ITS CURRENT SPEED SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS COULD HAPPEN IF THE
LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE (850-700MB) DRIFT EAST THEREBY DECREASING
THE SPEED OF THE STEERING FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL-WESTERN CARIB SEA.
AT THIS POINT NOT SO SURE THIS WILL BE THE CASE SO WILL GO WITH
CLIMO AND KEEP SCT POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

[caneman]

Great analysis Derecho but have to disagree. Belize is almost due West of where it is now so any type of Northerly motion puts it into the yucatan

[Derecho]

None of the globals have the wave as a tropical cyclone, and on many you can barely find the wave.

I was just simply pointing out the LBAR and A98E are essentially worthless (frankly, I don't know why they're still being run.) which I've done a lot, but find I have to repeat a lot, because routinely one of the other of the LBAR or A98E will be off in some anomalous direction and people will latch on to that track.

So out of a typical NHC model run the only model that shows any skill is the BAM.....M for a sheared storm, D for a non-sheared storm of decent strength.

And the BAMD is into Belize; the BAMM is into the Belize/Mexico border.

[caneman]

OK Thanks.

[wxman57]

The map there is pretty old.

Anyway, actually, IMHO, this system was never ACTUALLY shown going up the east coast on any of the models that supposedly showed it; looking at the vorticity maps only in the most vague sense could a tiny piece of vorticity from the weak wave depicted on them be considered to be drawn up north;

On Scott's maps the global model tracks are basically done by hand looking at maps and marking it; I personally would not have have put the UKMET, CMC, AVN tracks on there, because really, no actual "system" wholly derived from this wave was shown by those models following those tracks.

The only two model tracks worth anything on the map are the BAMD and BAMM. (Realize that's not what people want to hear, but, oh well.)

Despite the prattlings of Cosgrove et. al, whatever low forms off the East Coast in a few days is going to be induced by the standard non-tropical jetstream stuff, primarily, and have very little to do with this wave.

Anyway, there was a new run of the NHC models a couple hours ago (odd time for a run, indicative of a suspicion of an LLC) and the 2 that aren't worthless (BAMM for sheared or very weak storms, and BAMD for all others) have the storm plowing into Belize.

And clearly implies that it never actually enters the GOM.

I completely agree. Tropical models look best in this cae.