12 UTC models out

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:06 am

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04072113

Any comments are welcomed about this new 12:00 run from the tropical models.

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:09 am

Hmmm well there is a HUGE differnce between SHIP and DSHP after 96 hours... I wonder why that is though.

#3 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:10 am

Good morning, Luis.

Looks like the reason DSHIPS is showing weakening is that it was run on the BAMM track (land interaction along that track).

Still looks like some westerly shear over the system...thunderstorm activity sure looks better. I would be willing to bet that a surface low has closed off looking at the first available visible imagery.

Still moving fast at 22 knots...if it doesnt slow down today it's destined for the Yucatan channel.

MW

yoda · #4 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:11 am

IN addition... the LBAR and the A98E wanted to take this wave at least 5 degrees farther north than the other models...

What is the A98E?

chadtm80 · #5 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:11 am

MWatkins wrote:Good morning, Luis.

Looks like the reason DSHIPS is showing weakening is that it was run on the BAMM track.

Still looks like some westerly shear over the system...thunderstorm activity sure looks better. I would be willing to bet that a surface low has closed off looking at the first available visible imagery.

Still moving fast at 22 knots...if it doesnt slow down today it's destined for the Yucatan channel.

MW

I agree Mike, we will need to see a few more frames, but it sure does look like it might of closed off something

Derecho · #6 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:13 am

yoda wrote:Hmmm well there is a HUGE differnce between SHIP and DSHP after 96 hours... I wonder why that is though.

There's no land in SHIPS.

DSHIPS is SHIPS but taking land into account.

At 96 hours the storm is inland and at 120 hours it's deep inland....

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:15 am

MW agree that if the blowout of convection persists something may be forming at the surface but surface observations can verify that including some ships but someone posted in another thread that there were no ships in the area this morning.

Derecho · #8 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:16 am

yoda wrote:IN addition... the LBAR and the A98E wanted to take this wave at least 5 degrees farther north than the other models...

What is the A98E?

It's the oldest storm-specific model still run (though LBAR is almost as old, I think. COULD be older...)

It's about the worst tropical model there is.

It's 1/2 statistical and 1/2 "dynamical" (Statistical models do track predictions based on a database of previous storms in the area. They're simple models and, 30 years ago, all there were. "Dynamical" models forecast a track with a complex computer simulation based on actual measurements of the pressure, temperature, etc. around the world.).

For Andrew, the Dynamical models were just beginning to be used. The statistical models like A98E showed Andrew curving out to sea. The Dynamical models showed it hitting South Florida.

When the A98E is off by itself, it's basically ALWAYS wrong.

yoda · #9 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:18 am

Ah ok. Thanks for the input there Derecho!

Aquawind · #10 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:23 am

Well..I think the splitting trough theory and something tropical in the bahamas is looking highly unlikely. The WNW track the Tropical models are suggesting is closer..nothing north of the islands if this continues..

yoda · #11 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:23 am

You know something is wrong when Cosgrove continues to say the wave will go up through the Bahamas on Friday... and then into the VA/NC region as a merger with a frontal structure off the east coast. However!!! He does claim the GFS and the ECMWF schemes favor this scenario.... :roll:

Do the GFS or the ECMWF do well in the tropical world?

kevin · #12 Postby **kevin** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:29 am

::can be safely ignored::
computers... grr.

Derecho · #13 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:35 am

yoda wrote:You know something is wrong when Cosgrove continues to say the wave will go up through the Bahamas on Friday... and then into the VA/NC region as a merger with a frontal structure off the east coast. However!!! He does claim the GFS and the ECMWF schemes favor this scenario....

Do the GFS or the ECMWF do well in the tropical world?

Eh, well, they do OK, but the whole idea the wave has anything of any importance to do with the East Coast low, upon very close inspection of the models, is very, very, very dubious.

The top tropical model the last few years has been the GUNA...which isn't a model at all, but an average of 4 models.

The GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS.

It's actually done better than NHC; that is, the tracks of simply averaging those 4 models with no human input have beaten the NHC forecast tracks.

It was simply spectacular for Isabel and Fabian.

yoda · #14 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:39 am

Thanks for all the info Derecho.

kevin · #15 Postby **kevin** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:47 am

Wow, the GUNA sounds very interesting. How does the average work, is it straight forward everything equal average, or does it interpret outlier model tracks etc?

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