Personal Opinion on 97L

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I believe that it may be on it's way to closing the axis into a circulation. Recent Dvorak estimates show a surge in T-Numbers to 1.5. However, it is questionable as to if 97L has a surface circulation. We should monitor it for 24 hours to see if the convection persists and if it does indeed develop a surface circulation, and to also analyze the data from the Reconnaissance missions from tomorrow. It is very possible (54%) that we may have TD 01 near Jamaica tomorrow and in the Western Caribbean on Friday/Saturday. However, if upper-level conditions in the GOM do not change (40%), there is no chance of entry into the Gulf, instead, it will probably clip Cuba and head South of Florida and through the Bahamas.

[PTrackerLA]

I have a feeling that when recon gets out there it could go straight to Alex. It looks very impressive this morning.

[Dan]

However, if upper-level conditions in the GOM do not change (40%), there is no chance of entry into the Gulf, instead, it will probably clip Cuba and head South of Florida and through the Bahamas.

I believe the flow out of the gulf will lighten up a bit because a new trough is supposed to develop and come as far south as the interior Southeastern US, but not as far south as the current system is. I think that could allow entry into the Gulf of Mexico.