Will wave at tropical atlantic be the next player?

[cycloneye]

The latest image shows clearly the low level circulation and some convection trying to form but it needs more convection to have invest 98L up but I say that real soon 98L will be up.

[cycloneye]

While the majority of the members are concentrating on 97L I am looking eastward and what I see this morning is some more convection forming along the wave axis and still has the low level circulation.

[cycloneye]

Interesting curvature of the barbs in the ITCZ near wave axis.

[Steve H.]

Yeah Luis, I've been keeping an eye on that since it came off Africa. At least 97L was keeping us entertained until this could show signs of development. We'll see, and it gives us at least wo things to watch. Morning disc out of Melbourne tallks about the wave going through the Fl straits late weekend, and then the Bermuda high/Atlantic ridge trying to re-establish itself by early next week. Sounds like the eastern trough should fold and we will return to our typical summertime pattern.

[Trader Ron]

It's rare to see a CV blob transverse the Atlantic, and become a Hurricane during this time of the year. We'll see..

[cycloneye]

After the collapse of 97L all eyes should look eastward now as this wave doesn't look like too much now but as it moves more westward you will see an increase in convection and it still has a low level circulation so let's see if this one kicks the CV season.

[Aquawind]

It certainly has a chance..It should have some good convection popping when it passes 50W if it's to organize and threaten the islands..Latest qscat looks tighter but weaker..up near the 10N line now..

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas26.png

[cycloneye]

Aquawind the decending pass looks better than the other you posted.

[Aquawind]

Yes the winds are stronger.. 21:04 is yesterday though..correct me if I am wrong..

[cycloneye]

Yes old pass but I hope that a new pass comes soon to see a real update of those barbs.

[Dave C]

Is that unusual to have stronger west winds than the east winds? With the system moving west you would think the east winds would be stronger. Just curious!

[Aquawind]

Cool.. Thats why I mentioned the winds are stronger in that shot..versus the link I posted that has 8:08 early this morning and is weaker and a tad further north..I imagine the time of day makes a difference in the overall wind speed..so 23:00 late afternoon would be stronger than 08:00 in the early morning..not sure if the scatrometer reflects that..

[cycloneye]

From the 2:05 PM Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 43W S OF 19N MOVING W 20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A
BROAD CIRCULATION...BUT THE CURVATURE IS BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH TSTMS FORMING NEAR THE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 43W-48W. THE MID-LEVEL SIGNATURE OF
THE WAVE MAY BE WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT FARTHER W ALONG 50W.

This means that it is moving pretty fast as the mid-level is ahead of the low-level.

[Steve H.]

That is moving very fast and could be observed on the visible loops. It is way west of the convection. Hopefully it can generate its own mid-level vorticity over time.

[cycloneye]

From the 8:05 Pm Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 46W S OF 21N MOVING W 20 KT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OF
THE WAVE HAS REACHED 52W. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE WELL-DEFINED IN
SATELLITE PICTURES WITH GOOD ROTATION. ISOLATED MODERATE IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N47W. THE GFS INDICATES RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FOR SAT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO PUERTO RICO BY
SUN

Let's see what happens as it nears the islands by the weekend.