10:30 TWO -- A day or two away?....

[dixiebreeze]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Guest]

I wonder if NC needs to be watching this? i have looked at this off and on all day and wondered what track it may take. I wonder when we may know?

[kevin]

We'll have a much better handle on this in the morning I believe. If this gets a recon flight (which I doubt) we'll have an even better grasp. For now, it doesn't look all that impressive. Time will tell.

[Scott_inVA]

I wonder if NC needs to be watching this? i have looked at this off and on all day and wondered what track it may take. I wonder when we may know?

I suppose we watch everything but with a stalled out stationary front along the VA/NC coast, this won't be crashing in.

Stalled boundary keeps southerly flow at surface so the more pressing issue is moisture streaming up along the front. Mucho rain eastern NC/and Va a good bet into early next week.

Scott