Will this wave open the CV gates or another to bite the dust

[cycloneye]

At least the initial look is somewhat interesting over there SE of the Cape Verde islands but.............

[hurricanetrack]

Look at all that dust! Someone needs to turn on some sprinklers across western Africa! You know, like the ones they use on golf courses. That would do the trick.

[Tip]

Not with this huge SAL coming of the African coast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rkAsal.jpg

[cycloneye]

Look at all that dust! Someone needs to turn on some sprinklers across western Africa! You know, like the ones they use on golf courses. That would do the trick.

Yes dense dust in the east atlantic now.

[alicia-w]

Can someone explain the effect of dust on tropical cycle formation?

[chadtm80]

Dust = VERY VERY DRY air.. Very Dry Air = NO TC development.. Dry air like that will kill a wav very quick alicia

[Thunder44]

It will bite the dust.

[Trader Ron]

SAL could last through most of the Hurricane season.

[vbhoutex]

SAL like we are seeing now is common this time of year. Do not expect it to last the rest of the season.

[rbaker]

last wave that came off about a week ago looked even better than this one, and held its convection until about 40 w did started drifiting below that fatal 10 degree lat. line, and sure enough it went bye bye. This one not only needs to get by the SAL, but also stay between the 10-15 lat line which is tip off to cape verde season starting to fire. These first few waves, may just be precursors to whats coming in back of them across Africa.

[Stormchaser16]

Interesting point about the 10* N line, I think someone tho, commented about how this may be more myth then truth. Not sure who it was, but someone did do some research and found that there is not much of a correlation between lattitude and tropical wave dissapearance. Then again, this could be something different and i just read it the wrong way, so someone else needs to chime in on this.

Anyways, i agree that this wave may just be a precursor for things to come in future weeks, but this one probably has to many inhibiting factors like you said.

[alicia-w]

Have to mention that we had HUGE dust storms in AZ and NV prior to massive thunderstorms. It certainly didnt have any impact on those. ANd before somebody starts to lecture me, I know it isnt the same thing. But it generated the question in my mind. It seems to me that the wind can carry the dust regardless of the humidity level?

[Windspeed]

Have to mention that we had HUGE dust storms in AZ and NV prior to massive thunderstorms. It certainly didnt have any impact on those. ANd before somebody starts to lecture me, I know it isnt the same thing. But it generated the question in my mind. It seems to me that the wind can carry the dust regardless of the humidity level?

This is not a lecture, but I do wish to comment. You said you know it is not the same thing (in reference to tropical cyclone development). But I must say that the dry air pocket that sits over the desert-southwest region of the states is definitely a contributor to thunderstorm development. Any time you have very humid moist air moving north and northeast out of the eastern Pacific, the clash between dry and humid air masses will produce uplift and thunderstorm development. This process is how the southwest region gets much of its benificial rains. Of course, there is also the contribution that region makes to the massive thunderstorms that develop over the Great Plains region: dry air that is pulled in from the southwest from a dip in the jet is a vital ingredient to for deadly storms. The body of dry air is commonly referred to as the "dry line" and it assists in forming rotating updrafts between cooler air from the north and unstable humid air from the GOM. The process is very dependant on shear. And, of course, this is why it cannot work with tropical surface lows that require abundant moisture in the low levels and relatively little wind shear aloft. Any evacuation of air is simply moist air that has been "sponged" out--reaching the upper levels and being expelled by an upper-level high pressure mechanism.

I think this is turning into a lecture, so I will refrain and go to lunch.

[Steve H.]

Well, 18Z shows nice low pressure west of the African coast again at 96 hours, and strong ridging building to the north. Seems insistent the last few runs. Perhaps the tropics will bear fruit. Down the line it shows dual high pressure cells; one in the central Atlantic and one off the S. Carolina coast, with the storm sensing the weakness between them. We'll see

[Rieyeuxs]

vbhoutex wrote:

SAL like we are seeing now is common this time of year. Do not expect it to last the rest of the season.

We are entering the peak of the season (yes, just entering, I know...) but when does the SAL subside for the peak to actually begin?

[USAwx1]

Dust = VERY VERY DRY air.. Very Dry Air = NO TC development.. Dry air like that will kill a wav very quick alicia

Dry air and Plenty of temperature inversion. Which is equally as bad.

[HurricaneBill]

Dry air going into a hurricane is like choking on a piece of food.

[vbhoutex]

vbhoutex wrote:

SAL like we are seeing now is common this time of year. Do not expect it to last the rest of the season.

We are entering the peak of the season (yes, just entering, I know...) but when does the SAL subside for the peak to actually begin?

Normally within about 2-3 weeks if I remember correctly, just in time for CV to crank up for the peak. Anyone that knows better, feel free to correct me, but that is my recollection.

[abajan]

When the SAL eventually subsides we may have to contend with increasing shear between the Antilles and Africa:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Seems to have been on the rise over the past week or so. Then again, this might only be temporary.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 24W IS INTRODUCED. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT IT MAY SIGNAL THE BACK EDGE OF A LAYER OF STABLE
DUST LADEN AIR. SOME CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THE SOUTH END OF
THE WAVE NEAR THE ITCZ.

Interesting the fact that they say this wave is the back edge of the SAL so if that is correct it well be the start of more moist air and the gates will open over there in the next couple of weeks.