Will the gates of the season open very soon in EGOM,watl?

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290925
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA...AND
SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

Very interesting but some may say well it is Stewart who tends to be pro development while Avila is the counterpart.However beside that really both areas have some potential with those very warm waters.

[rainstorm]

very true, mr eye

[Steve H.]

It's the good cop, bad cop routine. Let's watch. What's the deal with the ULL near the Bahamas? Is it going SW like some have been saying, or just sitting there. No time to check out the progs so if you've heard Luis please post. Lots of convection there, so if it retrogrades the Bermuda high should also build north of it then westward. This seems interesting for development IF the ULL moves off SW. RSVP

[cycloneye]

The forecasts are for it to move WNW but I haven't seen the very latest model runs this morning.Dont be surprised if we see an invest (99L)with this later today.

[Steve H.]

Luis, I really meant the ULL. The thinking was yesterday that the ULL would retrograde WSW and leaving a surface trough/low to develop when UL winds improved, and yes that would move WNW. Is the ULL still expected to move SW or just sit today? Thanks for response.