99L and Gulf Stuff

[MWatkins]

I just wrote this whole thing and one last check before I posted it and bam...99L.

Starting with the SE Gulf....all three models develop it to some extent although none are very strong...the GFS takes a weak system up and along western FL...the NOGAPS to the FL panhandle/AL coast...and the UKMET further west to LA/TX. Right now though there is really not much to say about the appearance of the system...it's not very impressive in satellite imagery.

Impacting the track of the Gulf system is possible development further west with the Bahamas system. For some unknown reason...the GFS reflects nothing in the low levels at any forecast period for this system (although it also shows Darby as a very weak TD-like feature...sound familiar (Isabel)). The UK model and NOGAPS both do latch onto some weak development...which may be why their solutions are a bit further west. Just looking at satellite imagery...even though the system east of the Bahamas is getting impacted by shear from the Upper Low...my guess is that it has the better chance of development between the two systems right now. (And lo and behold the invest goes up...no quikscat in a while now but first visible images from this morning hint that something may be going on...more later).

In any case...even if both do develop...they will probably become mostly rain events...(although the always aggressive SHIPS guidance says 60 knots).

Gonna be in and out over the next few days...have my parents in town so mitigating potential crisis with my 2 little ones will become the top priority...

More later...

MW