First model plots for 99L at 12:00 UTC 25.0n-71.0w 1009 mbs

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992004) ON 20040729 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040729 1200 040730 0000 040730 1200 040731 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.0N 71.0W 25.8N 72.4W 26.7N 74.0W 27.7N 75.7W
BAMM 25.0N 71.0W 25.9N 72.9W 27.0N 74.7W 28.1N 76.7W
A98E 25.0N 71.0W 25.5N 73.2W 26.2N 74.9W 27.4N 76.3W
LBAR 25.0N 71.0W 25.9N 72.9W 27.1N 74.6W 28.2N 76.4W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040731 1200 040801 1200 040802 1200 040803 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.6N 77.5W 30.0N 80.2W 31.0N 81.6W 34.3N 78.4W
BAMM 29.3N 78.7W 31.6N 81.5W 34.6N 81.9W 37.8N 76.9W
A98E 28.7N 77.9W 30.7N 80.8W 32.6N 81.2W 36.2N 75.1W
LBAR 29.7N 78.1W 32.3N 79.5W 34.6N 78.3W 37.7N 73.3W
SHIP 52KTS 56KTS 59KTS 60KTS
DSHP 52KTS 46KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.0N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 24.5N LONM12 = 68.2W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 24.0N LONM24 = 65.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Hyperstorm]

Looking at the model plots, it looks like this system has a potential to pay a visit to Georgia/South Carolina in 3-4 days. Very interesting to say the least knowing that it is not too frequent that we see a system head in that direction.

[cycloneye]

That initial position of 25.0n-71w may not be the right one because if you look closely at the images you will see the center a little bit more east from that 71w one and a little bit north around 26n but I may be wrong because there may be a small low that can't be seen.

[Brent]

Cool.

[Hyperstorm]

That initial position of 25.0n-71w may not be too good because if you look closely at the images you will see the center a little bit more east from that 71w one and a little bit north around 26n.

Yeah, you may be right Cycloneye, but that appears to be Mid-Level. If anything, there might be a very weak surface low near 25N 71W. However, if we see that "Mid-Level" circulation come down to the surface (which happens very frequently with developing systems), we may see the track shift a few hundred miles to the right, in which case N. Carolina may be threatened. In any case, there is ample time to study the possible tracks of the possible 1st named storm...though not enough to be sitting down...

[Steve H.]

Its very difficult to tell where the "center" is going to be (not well defined at the moment. Luis I think the rotation you're referring to is not the true center. If it is it's heading north, but that leads me to belive we're looking at the rotation of the influence of the ULL. Question is, is there any ridging to the north. If not, this will head for the maritimes. If this thing pumps the ridge, it will head for the Carolinas. If there is decent high pressure to the north, it could come in as far south as Daytona Beach. But someone mentioned a trough coming into the east. I didn't see that in the near term.

[Anonymous]

Here these plots are graphically....Boy is my webpage wrong and I aint get time to fix it now cuz I gotta go to work lol... http://jekyhe_32221.home.comcast.net/

[yoda]

Now ifit could only move NW some... into the MA..
But I'll take what the LBAR model gives me...

But again big differences between the SHIPS and DSHP models.. and do my eyes decieve me, or is the SHIPS model again being stupid and calling for a CAT 1 Hurricane in 96 hours? Or at least close to one?

[cycloneye]

The ships overestimates many times intensity forecasts so dont give thatmodel too much stock about this being a hurricane.Remember 97L was going to be a hurricane according to ships and look later what happened.

[Hyperstorm]

Now ifit could only move NW some... into the MA..
But I'll take what the LBAR model gives me...

But again big differences between the SHIPS and DSHP models.. and do my eyes decieve me, or is the SHIPS model again being stupid and calling for a CAT 1 Hurricane in 96 hours? Or at least close to one?

That's right, but that can only happen if the center remains offshore (of course). The SHIPS model doesn't take into account land, while the DSHP model does. Hence DSHP indicates a weak tropical system by that same time (96-120 hours).

Looking at the latest images and getting into a little more detail, it looks like the SHIPS model will not be too far off intensitywise. It looks like the system might be developing a circulation where cycloneye pointed out and outflow is improving significantly this morning. If that happens, expect a possible hurricane near N. Carolina first thing on Monday.

Very interesting, but dangerous situation...

[yoda]

Yes that is correct. I will be watching it very closely. I would not be surprised to see a TD come out of this by tomorrow afternoon sometime.

[Guest]

Well this may hit close to home . could this be the wave i mentioned days ago? i have all my gear ready have to where i live this time of the year and living this close to the coast