First, 99L:
This is already developing some nice convection and banding features, and if anything between the two may be a tropical depression within 24 hours. It's looking very healthy for a wave, and I think the first invest most likely to pop as a TD is obviously 99L. My only concern is that if it develops within the next 24 hours that it could very well reach a decent tropical storm force strength. I dont know about it being a hurricane - it's way too early to tell on this so I won't speculate. However with the ridge over the atlantic and the GoM invest moving west 99L will more than likely try to move NW or maybe even a little south of NW. It all depends on the front and the trough and how far it makes it south and east to steer the potential system.
Next, 90L:
I am starting to believe now that although 99L may develop first, that 90L holds the most potential. 99L has a chance at moving around towards the east coast or (if we're lucky and the trough books it across the US - which it seems to be taking its sweet time if you ask those that were flooded out in Texas) recurving out to sea, but wherever it heads it's obviously going to move a lot faster than 90L and it will not have the ocean heat content that 90L will be able to feed off of.
The waters in the GoM are very very very warm, and if conditions become much more favorable (as they are forecasted to do) the GoM invest will have a lot more space and time and heat to work with. 99L has to deal with the UUL and troughiness developing over the Eastern US. 90L is meandering westward and even if it does eventually make it to the north central gulf coast or points west (I don't buy a landfall west of the TX/LA border at this point unless the trough is much slower to arrive) we could be dealing with a rapid intensification with all the incredibly warm water out there for it to work with. It doesnt have the deep convection it needs yet, but over the next 24-48 hours conditions appear ripe to at least give it a fighting chance.
To recap, I think 99L will develop first, and not be as intense as 90L could be if both develop over the next day or two.
I could be wrong though but one thing is clear, I've got the popcorn ready for the weekend. It looks like it'll be an interesting show.
PS: I'm no pro, I'm not even an amateur forecaster. These are my own musings so feel free to take them with big grains of salt
I'm only curious to see if this scenario is even possible really, and what the pros/amateur forecasters think about those ideas.
Thanks in advance!
