99L outta here in 30 hrs

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Tip
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 325
Joined: Fri May 30, 2003 7:31 am

99L outta here in 30 hrs

#1 Postby Tip » Fri Jul 30, 2004 12:58 pm

12z ETA shows 99L running out of room quickly.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#2 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 30, 2004 12:59 pm

ETA does not do well with tropical systems... so I don't believe that model at all!

Hopefully I am right in stating that.. someone correct me if I am not! :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

#3 Postby lilbump3000 » Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:00 pm

Yes you are correct, because from what i hear as well the ETA model is just useless with tropical systems.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:10 pm

If you use the ETA, you are doomed to fail while forecasting a TC
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#5 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:12 pm

True about the ETA and tropical systems, but I've noticed with this system , it handle it better than others so far, in development.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
The Dark Knight
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 800
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:18 am
Location: Mashpee, Cape Cod, MA
Contact:
Contact The Dark Knight

#6 Postby The Dark Knight » Fri Jul 30, 2004 3:00 pm

Hmm......
0 likes   
Top
caneman

#7 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 30, 2004 3:07 pm

I tend to agree with the ETA in this case. SInce I've been tracking this system it has been on a course for JAcksonville and with it's current speed, I don't see why it won't go there. IMHO, the models that take it to carolnas are wrong. Indeed Georgia on North may get majority of the rain but seems to be on a clear course for JAx to me.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 30, 2004 3:15 pm

look at any WV loop. This is an obvious Carolina threat
0 likes   
Top
caneman

#9 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 30, 2004 3:39 pm

Derick I always repsect you opinion but as weak as this, and I might add that without strong enough winds, it doesn't look like it will get classified. This think is just himming along WNW. What is going to make it turn?
0 likes   
Top
Tip
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 325
Joined: Fri May 30, 2003 7:31 am

#10 Postby Tip » Fri Jul 30, 2004 4:07 pm

Check oot the 300mil streamlines roaring out of the NE. This may have something to do with the storm trajectory. I'm not sure if these winds contribute, I'll leave that to the experts.

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_vect_300.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
The Dark Knight
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 800
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:18 am
Location: Mashpee, Cape Cod, MA
Contact:
Contact The Dark Knight

#11 Postby The Dark Knight » Fri Jul 30, 2004 4:50 pm

I agree...
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hammy and 107 guests