It looks like 90L has the top of the hill in sight...

[teal61]

and is about ready to spool up. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight. Looking at the NASA site zoomed in, it looks like the LLC has shifted slightly south nearer the developing convection. Pressures are also lower across the mid GOM as compared to yesterday.

Also, does it look like 99L is moving more west than north to anyone else?

[lilbump3000]

I also noticed that the center in the gulf had made a southward jogged towards the thunderstorms about an hour ago.

[ColdFront77]

Also, does it look like 99L is moving more west than north to anyone else?

From last year (and the year befores) experience I am hesitate to answer.

[Nimbus]

It is a little confusing. The high pressure ridge that has been in place from Louisianna all the way up the east coast to North Carolina looks like it is getting ready to bridge over 99L. Look at the water vapor loop, the ULL that has been in place SE of 99L is weakening.

Another day or so will tell, not much of a pressure gradiant around either storm. 90L has a little lower surface pressure but it is almost a toss up which area has the most potential to become Alex. I'm going with 90L based on the recent increased wind speeds reported at buoy 42003.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42003

[Guest]

It seems that 1008mb low and east winds starting to pick up that some more people would be more interested?

I've been trying to get this point across all day but I give up

[Air Force Met]

It seems that 1008mb low and east winds starting to pick up that some more people would be more interested?

I've been trying to get this point across all day but I give up

Too many people want to write it off...and given that kind of low level CLOSED circulation...I don't understand why.

[PTrackerLA]

From what I've gathered today from our NWS and local news weatherguy, 90L *should* stay well south of us and with high pressure building in from Texas next week our highs will possibly reach the upper 90's! I though about -removed- it this way when I heard that .

But I do agree, it looks like it's starting to get it's act together. We'll see what happens overnight.

[wxman57]

Hmm, my impression was that it was weakening through the day. I measured a very broad circulation 250nm across and 200nm north/south out there, with virtually no convergence toward the center. The tiny low-level cumulus that defined the circulation began to dissipate late this afternoon. Wind shear remains moderate, and should continue through tomorrow. If it survives to Sunday, it might have a chance to tighten up and develop. I made a high-res visible loop with plotted land/ship/buoy data from 15Z-00Z today:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gulfloop.gif

[Kennethb]

99 and 90 are still to close together and are feeding off of each other.

Everyone wanted some excitement and we're all having a blast watching them taking turns becoming "better organized". 90 has the good surface signal and 99 the outflow. They need to merge for something to happen.

Overall IMO the upper levels are just not right for the development that we and the models are expecting.

90 and 99 are probably setting up the atmosphere for the real action which will start up in a few weeks.

[wxman57]

I'd disagree that 90 has the good surface flow. Recon found steady 20-25 kt winds in all quadrants around 99L. Very well-defined and tight circulation, as opposed to 90L with a 200+ nm "center" and 5-15 kt winds not converging on the center. I think 99L will likely become Alex tomorrow, assuming a thunderstorm forms near the center. 90L will most likely dissipate or never develop a tight circulation. Can't completely rule out development, though, as long as there is any circulation at all.

[Stormsfury]

Before we lost last light visible satellite imagery, there was another surge of SE winds that was approaching 90L from the SOUTH ... IF, and a BIG IF at that, that it does develop a tighter circ., it would have to do so well west of the current area of convection. Very complex situation down there, but right now, 99L is the better show in town.

SF

[vbhoutex]

About the gulf system...look for it to meander slowly West or WNW for a day or two as it tries to get it's act together. With pressures low and staying that way and the moderate shear expected to lessen even more, as well as bathtub hot waters, I still think it has a chance. The GOM steering currents are very weak right now. Besides that the system is weak so not much is going to steer it anyway till it "gets its' act together", if it does. Once it gets its act together then the strength will determine what steering currents will move it, so it is difficult to give any real determination of future track if/until it develops. Strength is another issue here. The longer it stays over the bathtub waters, the more it will strengthen. That is my other concern with this one, IF it develops. So basically it does have some factors in its' favor-low initial pressure, slow movement over warm water, and decreasing upper level shear.

That being said it would appear that Alex would most likely form from our Atlantic system and probabaly head towards the Carolinas. I wouldn't be surprised if this system goes to TS strength within 36-48 hours and heads toward the Carolina coast. If it does this quickly enough I would be surprised if it doesn't make landfall there before starting to turn northward since it could come in ahead of the trough that would steer it North and East.

As with any tropical system it is all in the timing with both of these disturbances as to whether they will strengthen and/or threaten our coasts. So sit back and watch and enjoy the ride, if it leaves the station.

[Derek Ortt]

the two are in no way interacting with each other

[Guest]

Lastest loop I saw from 99L didn't look hot at all to me. LLC look good but no T-storm activity at all

[lilbump3000]

The gulf system tonight is centered at 24.5N 86.0W

[Derecho]

99L is basically garbage itself; it's "early season syndrome" that makes it look good....

And the 1030PM TWO is pretty down on it. VERY far from certain it's ever a TD; assuming it becomes a TS is fairly dubious.