Comments on the Atlantic (02.08.2004, 2327 UTC)

[DoctorHurricane2003]

M 02.08.2004 [MON AUG 02 2004]
2327 UTC [6:27 PM CDT (GMT -5)]


TROPICAL STORM ALEX (01L)

Over the past 12 hours, Alex has gained strength and organization quite rapidly. The T-Numbers provided by SSD of NOAA as of 02/1745 show Alex at 3.5. Based on current radar and satellite appearance, it would not surprise me to see those numbers bump to 4.0 at 02/2345, as Alex continues to look more like a minimal category 1 hurricane (it has a classic radar eye that most 70-75 mph systems have and it appears that a CDO is developing, if not in place.) As time progresses, expect the winds to be between 60-65 KTS at the next full advisory at 03/0300, perhaps staying in a strengthening phase through a favorable upper-level environment and warm Gulf Stream waters until overnight tomorrow, when Alex will begin feeling shearing winds. Expect it to graze the Outer Banks of Cape Hatteras and accelerate northeastward with a frontal boundary.

INVEST 91L

Earlier T-Number indications at 02/1745 showed it at 2.0. Since then, it has continued to be better organized and should be upgraded to Tropical Depression 02L at the 03/0300 advisory. Expected T-Number Probability at 02/2345 is a split between 2.0 and 2.5...either may happen depending on the Quickscat Data which is looking more impressive. 91L is in a favorable environment and should continue to strengthen as it approaches the Leeward and Windward Islands, as it will continue to move west to WNW.

INVEST 92L

I would not expect 92L to develop where it is due to impedement from cooler waters and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). However, as it nears 40-50 W near 91L, it will more likely show development.

*End

[Rainband]

Good points. I will watch 91L. I think this may become a Problem down the road for the Islands

[Derek Ortt]

Was at the HRD briefing today. SST's are 27C for 92L