Current dry MJO doesn't jibe w/increased activity

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LarryWx
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Current dry MJO doesn't jibe w/increased activity

#1 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 02, 2004 5:33 pm

Here is a link to the most recent MJO map (time sensitive):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

As one can see, the 8/1 map shows the vast majority of the Atlantic basin to be covered by the brown color or dry phase. This wouldn't seem to jibe with increased Atlantic activity.

Any comments/explanations from the MJO experts? Thanks.
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#2 Postby Stormchaser16 » Mon Aug 02, 2004 5:34 pm

They dont always match up, these waves coming off Africa are getting stronger as we near the CV season, ones that are strong enough are able to hold themselves regardless of the MJO phase.....
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#3 Postby Aquawind » Mon Aug 02, 2004 5:36 pm

I mentioned this yeasterday and Luis did as well, but no takers..No need no mojo..seems so..yo. :lol:
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#4 Postby MGC » Mon Aug 02, 2004 5:36 pm

Too much credit is given the MJO. Last season it was a near 50-50 split with nearly half of the tropical cyclones forming during the dry phase of the MJO......MGC
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#5 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 03, 2004 12:17 am

Dang, I'm not sure that I'm interpreting them well, but these replies (especially MGC's) almost seem to suggest there's little statistical correlation between the wet phase/development as well as the dry phase/lack of development. I mean IF you can flip a coin and get as good an indication, where would be the predictive value?

After closely following it for the last few weeks, I'm starting to wonder if it is a waste of time for predicting trop. development. I'm depressed now. :wink:

Any other opinions?
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