Two Forecast 2...turning back toward coast at 120 hours

[ncweatherwizard]

But don't get too hyped up. Between trying to get live updates for Alex and forecasting this, it's more likely that I've made a stupid error in the forecast. However, to me a turn back to the left seems quite reasonable. It's just the timing of the next trough at that period, which I should be able to start pinning down tomorrow. So for now, everybody keep an eye out (Florida maybe not as much but still...) and hold patient.

Also I freely intensified this...any interruption could cause significant error here.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... 4/two.html

[Guest]

I'll eat crow times 100 if this thing even gets near mainland USA nevermind the intensity.

[Stormchaser16]

Well, actually it could get closer then some would think, after the initial trough comes out at day 4/5 and picks it on a NW or even NNW track, HP is forecasted to build in behind it again, and depending on the strength of this, it could turn back towards the coast only to have another s/w dive through the northern US and recurve it for a second time. In a pattern like this, I wouldnt expect anything to get close to the east coast that is coming from Cape Verde. Lots of potential storms could be coming this same track only to get turned away unless the pattern changes. Which it has been like this since winter/spring so it likely will not change anytime too quickly.

[WilloughbyStormWatcher]

But don't get too hyped up. Between trying to get live updates for Alex and forecasting this, it's more likely that I've made a stupid error in the forecast. However, to me a turn back to the left seems quite reasonable. It's just the timing of the next trough at that period, which I should be able to start pinning down tomorrow. So for now, everybody keep an eye out (Florida maybe not as much but still...) and hold patient.

Also I freely intensified this...any interruption could cause significant error here.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... 4/two.html

I gotta say, I'm with NC on this one. The current forecasted track makes since given the current weather patterns but I think a shift to the west may be coming and I think it has a good chance to make itself into a hurricane given current shear and weather patterns at it's current positions.

But, only time will tell.

[Stormchaser16]

Welcome to the board Willoughby.....
The current forecasted track does make sense, it will continue to head NNW though, and then it could possibly turn back west (give some a pretty good scare if the high pressure gets strong enough) only to be turned out again by another incoming s/w projected by most models (including the best MR model, the EC).... still i cannot see a threat to the EC

[ncweatherwizard]

Welcome to the board Willoughby.....
The current forecasted track does make sense, it will continue to head NNW though, and then it could possibly turn back west (give some a pretty good scare if the high pressure gets strong enough) only to be turned out again by another incoming s/w projected by most models (including the best MR model, the EC).... still i cannot see a threat to the EC

Welcome to the board first of all.

Chaser16, what you say makes sense, and I have to agree with you; it's just a long shot past 120 or now even past 72--but I realize you understand this--just clarifying.

[Stormchaser16]

O yea, we are pretty much in agreement on our forecast paths