18:00 UTC update of models=Only one of them does not recurve

[cycloneye]

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

The rest of the models go recurving northward after tracking south of Puerto Rico.Only the A-98-E is the one model that goes way more west to a position east of Florida.But this model is not too reliable anyway by looking at past years performances.

[yoda]

Can ya post the picture of it? My comp won't do it.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Here Yoda....



From the site cycloneye had above...

[caneman]

notice how BAMD builds this system back NW

[lilbump3000]

That model plot up there is the same as the 12Z models. This is the 18Z model below.

[cycloneye]

Ok thank you for that grafic updated to the 18z run as the one I posted didn't want to update.

[Guest]

Only the GFT curves it farther WNW then the rest of the models.

[dixiebreeze]

Good graphics, thanks everyone.

[Scott_inVA]

Alex has begun to recurve so I'll switch WREL's Model Map page from Alex to TD#2 this evening.

Scott

[yoda]

Only the GFT curves it farther WNW then the rest of the models.

where did you get that? That appears to be very interesting...

[Derek Ortt]

You all do realize that the DSNS is an experimental version of SHIPS! Thats not a track model at all

[Rainband]

Just heard on the news. It will approach PR and then make a right hand turn. Next!!

[yoda]

We shall see. I am not totally writing this off yet.

[weatherfan]

Again as some as stated this may be a season slimmer of those where we had a trough rige trough type of pattern in them.Where most of the cape verd systems that do form would be turned away from the east coast due to the perdomant trough.However that does it mean 1 or 2 of them won't.Because if the trough lefted out temperarey or dig in the Ohio vally then that could allow for 1 or 2 to possabley hit the East coast or southeast coast.Alex was a very close call.But the timing was there where we have a trough in place and in time to kick Alex out to prevent him from making land fall on the east coast. So even with we have a season where 1 or two tropica systems make land fall.This may be a season where most of the cape verd type storms stay out in the open waters.Or they will have more west word movement componet the systems that stay underneath the troughs that why the gom will have to be watch this year.

[Stormchaser16]

Oh yes, certainly 1 or 2 could make an impact on the east coast, there is no guarenteeing that a trough will always be there to protect us, however i think those who do not want a tropical system barring down on their doorstep, can take some comfort in the pattern. But of course, all it takes is one.

[USAwx1]

All it takes is one to make a season memorable. Look at Andrew (1992).

[Stormchaser16]

Exactly.......

But if one hits one area, then those in another area have a little to breath about, knowing that the chances of numerous systems making landfall is reduced this year because of a persistent trough pattern over the eastern US.......

[USAwx1]

only 30% of the systems which developed in my analog years actually made landfall. HOWEVER 40% of the aforementioned storms made landfall as canes, and 25% as majors.

The areas which appear to be under THE MOST threat are Texas, Florida and NC--in the case of NC we have already seen that w/ the threat from Alex.