Question for MWatkins

[frederic79]

Mike,
I'll try and keep this short. This cold front/trough is obviously unusual and rare for early August. Do you have any idea how long it is expected to be around after moving into the Gulf sometime Friday? In a nutshell, is it likely that the large high pressure system it brings will move east in time to return a southwesterly steering mechanism for a potential Bonnie sometime early next week so that the northern Gulf is afffected? Or, will it instead build westward towards Texas? I've been studying past tracks, ie, Claudette, Lili, Elena and timing seems to be the key here.

[MWatkins]

Mike,
I'll try and keep this short. This cold front/trough is obviously unusual and rare for early August. Do you have any idea how long it is expected to be around after moving into the Gulf sometime Friday? In a nutshell, is it likely that the large high pressure system it brings will move east in time to return a southwesterly steering mechanism for a potential Bonnie sometime early next week so that the northern Gulf is afffected? Or, will it instead build westward towards Texas? I've been studying past tracks, ie, Claudette, Lili, Elena and timing seems to be the key here.

The GFS model seems to think that the trough will lift out in days 4 and 5 and a moderate sized ridge will build in. The euro is a little slower with the lift and leaves some troughing behind...although I havent looked at the latest runs of either model yet tonight.

The fact that the system has not strengthened...and the fact that it remains at a low lat tonight...suggests that if anything does develop...the turn up to the north may be slow.

From here on I'll go ahead and pretend that the system will develop further and become a storm. A track into the gulf is just as likely as one through the central bahamas and or Florida. A major hurricane running over the ridge in the central Atlantic may also cause some small unforseen changes to overall pattern as well.

So...I would put a midpoint right along 75 west...and give "bonnie" a 40% shot to the left of that number....and a 60% shot to the right.

BTW...any number of folks can add more to this analysis...this is just of course my quick take given tonight's developments...

Thanks for asking...

MW