Keep the faith guys!!

[canes04]

Like i've said in the past, i'm no expert here.
But one thing i've come to learn about the tropics, things
can change in a matter of hours in Aug. & Sept.
Example, who would of thought 3 days ago Alex would
be a cat3 in the N. Atlantic.
Anyway, we need to watch ex TD2 very carefully, this thing
can crank up at anytime.
And there may be a monster CV storm on the horizon.

[Stormchaser16]

Well yes thats true.... but just as I hope that Alex isnt thought of as a one in a million shot, i also hope that people dont use it as an example for every entity.....

Alex took advantage of an improving ULL environment combined with the Gulf stream waters and initially slow movement and little land interference. As a ridge moved over Alex, it allowed the shear keeping the center out of the circ. to relax and allow it to consolidate itself. Alex took advantage of his environment to the fullest potential, but that is because the environment greatly improved for some time.

TD2/former TD2 whatever its called..... is different, there is shear all over the Carib in its path and its not likely to relax anytime soon. Initially TD2 also had relative shear from moving all too fast, this it lost the potential LLC that it may have had. Dry air was also initally a problem. With so much shear in the region(and being in an area where the dynamic environment is much different then that of the gulf stream) this is a totally different situation, and its unlikely it will perform an Alex strengthening anytime soon. Of course if TD2 does survive the environment out ahead of itself then it would have oppurtunity to do so. But unlike Alex it doesnt appear as though this system will have that window of oppurtunity to take advantage of for some time to come.

[canes04]

I think you missed my point. I did not say that
ex TD2 would become a cat3 storm.
I meant that this time of year things can change
rather quickly in the tropics.
After going through Andrew, I've learned my lesson.

[Stormchaser16]

No no no.... i wasnt saying that you were thinking it would become a cat 3........ please dont think that i was saying you were doing that. I was just making a point about the general environment ahead of TD2 and comparing it to what happened with Alex..... im sorry

[HURAKAN]

I think I will wait until tomorrow to see if the system blossom overnight and tries to become better organized. Let see what happens!