Comments on the Atlantic (08.08.2004, 2123 UTC)

[DoctorHurricane2003]

N 08.08.2004 (SUN AUG 08 2004)
2123 UTC (0423 PM CDT)

(REMNANTS OF) 02L

There seems to be quite a bit of hype about this system, however, I do not yet quite see its organization (even though I do have to admit it is more organized now than yesterday). The main reason why is that the convection around the system has been off and on and until we see steady, deep convection around a surface circulation, 02L will be nothing. For right now, it is something to monitor, especially with the T-Numbers at 1745 being inititated at 1.0.

PERCENT CHANCES BY HOUR FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF 02L:
12 HRS: 15%
24 HRS: 22%
36 HRS: 31%
48 HRS: 38%
72 HRS: 49%
96 HRS: 61%
120 HRS: 54%


INVEST 92L

This system is being sheared significantly and I have no expectation for its development.


WAVE EAST OF ISLANDS

While this wave looks very impressive convection-wise, it lacks any sign of any surface organization in its wind field. It may develop once it reaches the Western Caribbean.

*END

[Fego]

This is from NWS here in Puerto Rico...


.DISCUSSION...THIS HAS BEEN AN EASY SYSTEM TO FOLLOW FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTION AT 50 WEST ON FRIDAY HAS MOVED SLOWLY
NORTH AND IS NOW LOCATED AT ABOUT 27 NORTH...THIS IS ENERGY THAT HAS
SPLIT OFF FROM THE PREVIOUS WAVE. THIS LEFT AN UPSIDE DOWN VEE OF
ACTIVITY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VEE MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT WITH
CONSIDERABLE SHOWER COVERAGE OF THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE VEE CONSISTS OF
A NARROW SCATTERED LINE OF CONVECTION THAT IS ADVANCING TO THE WEST
AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS. IT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND IN PUERTO RICO AFTER NOON ON MONDAY. IT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BUT THERE
SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HAZE OVER THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE APPEARS AND DISAPPEARS IN THE MODEL RUN BETWEEN 10 AND
13 NORTH AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
INDICATING THAT IT IS FIGHTING TO BECOME A TROPICAL CIRCULATION BUT
THAT IT IS LIKELY MOVING TOO FAST TO DEVELOP. WINDS BECOME MORE
SHARPLY SOUTH BEHIND THIS FEATURE AS IT ADVANCES BUT THE MAIN CENTER
OF THE WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO GO FARTHER NORTH THAN 13 DEGREES
NORTH.

AS THE AREA OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE AT 51 WEST MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...IT MOVES
TOWARD AND CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BUT EVEN STRONGER MOISTURE
REFORMS AT 10 NORTH 50 WEST AND FORMS A NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST LINE OF
MOISTURE THAT ALSO ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SECOND BAND OF
MOISTURE CROSSES THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUS MOISTURE IS
PRESENT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY IN VARYING DEGREES.
THE CONVERGENCE ALOFT ON TUESDAY SHOULD SERVE TO DIMINISH CONVECTIVE
GROWTH SOMEWHAT THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY...WHILE THE AREA OF DIVERGENCE
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW DEVELOPMENT. SOME DRYING WOULD BE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

THETA-E FIELDS ARE DRIEST...337K...AT 06Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN
BEGIN TO INCREASE. THIS SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE VERY DRY AREA
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THE CENTER OF
THE THETA-E MAXIMUM MOVES THROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST AND OVER
PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
CONSIDERABLE. MODELS PULL THE THETA-E BELOW 340 K ON THURSDAY
EVENING AND DO NOT SHOW THE ARCH OF MOISTURE AS DID THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS.