Upper shear increasing over 91L?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:52 am

A 1012 mb low centered in the S Gulf of Mexico near 22n86w along
the surface trof that extends from 20n87w through the Yucatan
Channel to 25n85w. This system is the remnant of T.D. Two and
has the potential for development into a tropical cyclone. Radar
images from Cancun Mexico satellite presentation is not as
impressive as 6 hours ago. Upper level shear has increased over
the last few hours. Small area of scattered moderate/strong
convection is along the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within
a 60 nm radius of 22n87w.

A little fork has appeared at this mornings discussion at 8 AM.What do you think about the discussions not so bullish tone?Recon this afternoon will say the truth of what is going on beneath the convection and around the system.

Thunder44 · #2 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:56 am

I have saw the Cancun radar this morning on the other post, it doesn't like it has the organzied appearance it had earlier. Also the winds out of Cancun have been coming from the SE...

http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMUN.html

This indicates there is no LLC yet.

#3 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:18 am

cycloneye wrote:A 1012 mb low centered in the S Gulf of Mexico near 22n86w along
the surface trof that extends from 20n87w through the Yucatan
Channel to 25n85w. This system is the remnant of T.D. Two and
has the potential for development into a tropical cyclone. Radar
images from Cancun Mexico satellite presentation is not as
impressive as 6 hours ago. Upper level shear has increased over
the last few hours. Small area of scattered moderate/strong
convection is along the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within
a 60 nm radius of 22n87w.

A little fork has appeared at this mornings discussion at 8 AM.What do you think about the discussions not so bullish tone?Recon this afternoon will say the truth of what is going on beneath the convection and around the system.

This baby is developing. Cleick on link below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Stormchaser16 · #4 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:27 am

NO its not

#5 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:29 am

Stormchaser16 wrote:NO its not

That is your opinion.
You have your opinion and I have mine that's
what makes this country so great! :lol:

Stormchaser16 · #6 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:55 am

Lol yes...... but look at the facts here....

Shear
NO LLC yet

Nimbus · #7 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:58 am

Looks like a partially exposed LLC in the first visible shots this morning. The convection will probably refire over the center soon though.

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:59 am

Stormchaser16 wrote:Lol yes...... but look at the facts here....

Shear
NO LLC yet

This afternoon's recon should answer the question once and
for all whether we have a TD or more in the making.

Stormchaser16 · #9 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:06 am

Yup we will just have to see what they say when they get in there.... right now it doesnt look very impressive IMO

Nimbus · #10 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:12 am

The Axxial shear from the high should relax by a factor of pi but the shear does hinder initial development a little. Guess they initialize the models a little further west..

Stormchaser16 · #11 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:13 am

Nimbus wrote:The Axxial shear from the high should relax by a factor of pi but the shear does hinder initial development a little. Guess they initialize the models a little further west..

Darn just when i thought geometry was out of my life

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:53 am

Doesn't look too good today.

Upper shear increasing over 91L?

Upper shear increasing over 91L?

Re: Upper shear increasing over 91L?

You opinion

Recon

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