Not Friggin GOOD...

[DESTRUCTION5]

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ESTIMATED MOTION.
CHARLEY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A SWIFT EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO
THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE
DIVERGENT THEREAFTER. BY THAT TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE THE
EASTERNMOST OF THE ENSEMBLE WITH THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE
TRACKS SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER
THESE LATTER TWO TRACKS ARE PROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE LEFT BECAUSE OF
AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK VORTEX IN THE SIMULATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS.

[Stormchaser16]

To make a side note.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

The core of Charley doesnt really look that big to me, yes theres that one giant area of convection to the NW, but the system itself really isnt that large/impressive, not to mention moving at 24MPH

[Brent]

Charley's forecast is very concerning. NHC has it 200 miles south of Pensacola as a 100 mph hurricane on Sunday Morning, but I expect to see the winds continue to go up.

[Josephine96]

If it slows down a little.. there could be more trouble because that could also let it strengthen..

[Stormchaser16]

Slows down A LOT........

[DESTRUCTION5]

Point of this post was to read the Highlighted area...FURTHER EAST!

[Stormchaser16]

Thanks for explaining the obvious.........

[Stormchaser16]

You posted the discussion which mentioned its forward motion, therefore i commented on it.......

[PTrackerLA]

It's interesting how everyone is reacting the forecast. This is still 5+ days out from landfalling, it's still south of Puerto Rico! I would say by Thursday if the track is still pointing towards Florida start getting worried.

[Stormchaser16]

With such a massive trough, what other possible scenario do you see?

The ONLY other thing that could happen, is Charlie slows down DRAMATICALLY, and misses the trough completely, other then that this baby will be picked up by the trough, then thrown up the coast towards the MA and the NE(big flooding concern here)

Bonnie will likely move up the coast as well, though further south then Charlie is likely to head it would seem

[Weatherboy1]

Obviously, right now, Charley is booking along to the WNW. And I would hazard to guess (always dangerous with no recon) that based on zoom-in visible satellite imagery, the actual LLC is somewhat exposed around 14.5 68.5 (NW of the official position -- at the NW corner of a new blob of convection going up). That means it's not rapidly strengthening CURRENTLY. But in 36-48 hours, this thing is definitely going to slow down. That's where I think you'll see the real strengthening take place. I am definitely concerned about the possibility of Charline becoming a major hurricane -- but that potential upswing in strength won't happen for another day or two.

[HurricaneGirl]

[goodlife]

I'm just worried about where it will go once it hits the gulf....so far all accounts having it coming into the gulf right??
Then what will steer it ?

[Rainband]

I have never seen model consensus this tight that early out

[Rainband]

It's interesting how everyone is reacting the forecast. This is still 5+ days out from landfalling, it's still south of Puerto Rico! I would say by Thursday if the track is still pointing towards Florida start getting worried.

Unfortunately unless something drastic changes the climatology is what has set this in stone. You can have it if you want it

[Josephine96]

I hope us here in Central and South Florida have our guard up about Charley.. he means business

[ColdFront77]

It's interesting how everyone is reacting the forecast. This is still 5+ days out from landfalling, it's still south of Puerto Rico! I would say by Thursday if the track is still pointing towards Florida start getting worried.

Unfortunately unless something drastic changes the climatology is what has set this in stone. You can have it if you want it

The frontal boundaries moving into southeast Texas eastward through the Gulf into north-central and central Florida at the very least/even southern Florida briefly are against climatology, too.