Tampa area could be under the gun?

[EDR1222]

Living on the east coast of Florida, the one thing that amazes me more than us not getting a hit for many years is the fact that the Tampa Bay area or any of SW Florida has been spared so much.

I completely understand the dynamics of the models and that they change constantly, and they can be off alot especially 5 days out, so it is still uncertain, but I wonder how the tides generally run in Tampa Bay if a decent size storm, cat 2 or more were approching from the SW. Are there highly flood prone areas such as the ones that exist is New Orleans, with having a large bay in the area? Just wondering if anyone had some information concerning this.

By the way, any chance of hitting Cuba, making a right hook sliding harmlessly under the florida keys then running up the east coast far enough off-shore to avoid damage to east central florida, but giving us surfers some great waves to surf?
Highly unlikely I guess

Thanks

Ed

[mf_dolphin]

Hi EDR1222! I'm in south Pinellas County. For those of you unfamiliar with west-central Florida, Pinellas County sits between the Gullf of Mexico and Tampa Bay. now back to the question, Tampa Bays worst case scenario is a landfalling hurricane just north of the mouth of Tampa Bay. This would bring both the storm surge and on-shore winds up into the bay. With the off-shore water depth as well as the bay itself being very shallow I've seen official estimates of expected storm surge being as much as 25% above what is listed in the Saffir-Simpson scale. While we're further above sea-level than New Orleans the vast majority of the Tampa Bay area is under 15 feet above sea-level. A Category 4 or 5 storm would turn Pinellas County into two small islands. The other difficulty we have here is that there are 4 primary evacuation routes. Three of these are bridges and the other is a land route that is horrible during normal rush hour.

[stormchazer]

Hi EDR1222! I'm in south Pinellas County. For those of you unfamiliar with west-central Florida, Pinellas County sits between the Gullf of Mexico and Tampa Bay. now back to the question, Tampa Bays worst case scenario is a landfalling hurricane just north of the mouth of Tampa Bay. This would bring both the storm surge and on-shore winds up into the bay. With the off-shore water depth as well as the bay itself being very shallow I've seen official estimates of expected storm surge being as much as 25% above what is listed in the Saffir-Simpson scale. While we're further above sea-level than New Orleans the vast majority of the Tampa Bay area is under 15 feet above sea-level. A Category 4 or 5 storm would turn Pinellas County into two small islands. The other difficulty we have here is that there are 4 primary evacuation routes. Three of these are bridges and the other is a land route that is horrible during normal rush hour.

Yep...that is one of the Doomsday Scenarios discussed every year at the start of Hurricane Season. Come seek shelter at my house, that is if you can get down I-4, SR 60 or in worse case US 92. I'm 25 miles from the coast with plenty of brew in the fridge.

[mf_dolphin]

I'll be glad to take you up on that if I could get to Tampa! LOL

[stormchazer]

I'll be glad to take you up on that if I could get to Tampa! LOL

I worked for Publix in Charleston, SC when Floyd threatened. It took us 5.5 hours to get from Charleston to Columbia, SC. That was a trip of 90 miles.

My buddies got stuck at the store. It took them 6 hours to get home. A trip of roughly 9 miles.

[USAwx1]

Living on the east coast of Florida, the one thing that amazes me more than us not getting a hit for many years is the fact that the Tampa Bay area or any of SW Florida has been spared so much.

I completely understand the dynamics of the models and that they change constantly, and they can be off alot especially 5 days out, so it is still uncertain, but I wonder how the tides generally run in Tampa Bay if a decent size storm, cat 2 or more were approching from the SW. Are there highly flood prone areas such as the ones that exist is New Orleans, with having a large bay in the area? Just wondering if anyone had some information concerning this.

I agree the TB area MAY be under the gun, but we have alot more time to work on that.

By the way, any chance of hitting Cuba, making a right hook sliding harmlessly under the florida keys then running up the east coast far enough off-shore to avoid damage to east central florida, but giving us surfers some great waves to surf?
Highly unlikely I guess

Thanks

Ed

This above part is fairly Improbable.

[mf_dolphin]

I'm only about 3 miles from the Sunshine Skyway bridge but they close it at 45MPH winds. That leavea the three other bridges (snarled at rush hour) and good old US 19 N. We've just settled on going to my in-laws house (21feet above sea-level) and riding it out.