TPC Is Not To Blame for Any Ineffective Emergency Management

[donsutherland1]

Now that a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane has decimated parts of western Florida, there are some who are blaming TPC for the consequences of what took place. This is unfair, as the blame is wholly misplaced.

Emergency Management is about preparation for a possible disaster. Preparation is "the action or process of making something ready...for some occasion." Hence, preparation is not the instantaneous reaction to an event that is already underway. Preparation involves taking steps before that event so that the risk exposure to that event is reduced.

Thus, the question arises, was there advance warning of a possible major hurricane for the region that was battered by Charley?

Let's take a look at the TPC's August 12 11 am discussion:

THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT CHARLEY COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT MAKES LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND SOUTHWARD WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LESS.

• Approximately 29 hours before landfall, TPC was warning of a possible major hurricane.

• Approximately 29 hours before landfall, TPC was suggesting that odds of a major hurricane were higher if Charley made landfall south of Tampa.

Is Port Charlotte south of Tampa? Yes

Should this forecast of a possible major hurricane have been treated as extraneous information because Charley at the time was not a major hurricane? No

Should Emergency Managers have taken the lead in taking steps based on the assumption that a major hurricane was possible? Yes

At 5 pm on August 12, TPC reported:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

• Hurricane Charley had strengthened from having winds of 90 mph at 11 am to 105 mph at 5 pm. The key point was that strengthening was taking place some 23 hours prior to landfall.

• TPC warned that additional strengthening was expected and that by Friday (August 13), Charley could be a major hurricane.

Because Charley had not yet become a major hurricane, should the Emergency Planners have operated under the assumption that Charley would not be a major hurricane? No

Should the strengthening have been ignored? No

At 11 pm, TPC declared:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

• Seventeen hours before landfall, most of Florida's West Coast was now under a hurricane warning. This meant that during the next 24 hours hurricane conditions could be expected.

• TPC urged that preparations be rushed to completion.

• TPC now declared unequivocally that Charley would be a major hurricane.

Did the hurricane warning cover the Port Charlotte area? Yes

Should preparations have just started to be made or rushed to completion? TPC says that the should have been rushed to completion.

Should the operating assumption have remained that a minor hurricane was likely to threaten the region? No

Without doubt, the record is very clear. TPC warned of a major hurricane and Port Charlotte was in the warning area.

In a densely populated area, a basic operating principle of Emergency Planners should be to take more steps rather than fewer steps ahead of possible disasters. This is a basic principle--a starting point.

There is little doubt, Emergency Planners should have advised or ordered evacuations from the affected area no later than 17-29 hours before the storm made landfall. Any failure to do so was not the TPC's fault. TPC provided repeated warnings of the expected landfall of a major hurricane.

Preparations should have been made on the basis of that forecast. Action should not have waited until after Charley was declared a major hurricane. By then, especially if that didn't happen until Charley was almost ashore, it might have been too late for action.

[therock1811]

EXCELLENT POST Don!!! I 100% agree with you!

[Rainband]

I agree

[FireCracker]

Right on!

[Mello1]

Good points Don. Yet EM officials did issue a mandatory evac for Charlotte County 24 hrs. before Charlie slammed in there. Most heeded the warnings, yet many of the elderly stayed. This is the point where planners need to start. The elderly and special needs persons require more time and assistance to evacuate and likely more county and state resources in order to do so.

[Steve Cosby]

A couple of quick hindsight statements:

Let's take a look at the TPC's August 12 11 am discussion:

THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT CHARLEY COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT MAKES LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND SOUTHWARD WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LESS.

The only problem here is that this was in the discussion and not the public advisory. For the most part, the normal public only sees the public advisory and the discussion is felt to the the domain of the met.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

The word some here causes some consternation. Qualifier words like that don't lend themselves to quanitification very well. Simply stating "STRENGTHENING IS..." would normally be better (in my humble opinion).

Otherwise, I, for one, completely agree that NHC/TPC is one hundred percent off the hook - they served their purpose.

[stormchazer]

Thank you Don! I think that pretty well says it all!

[themusk]

Now that a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane has decimated parts of western Florida, there are some who are blaming TPC for the consequences of what took place. This is unfair, as the blame is wholly misplaced.
<snip>
There is little doubt, Emergency Planners should have advised or ordered evacuations from the affected area no later than 17-29 hours before the storm made landfall. Any failure to do so was not the TPC's fault. TPC provided repeated warnings of the expected landfall of a major hurricane.

Preparations should have been made on the basis of that forecast. Action should not have waited until after Charley was declared a major hurricane. By then, especially if that didn't happen until Charley was almost ashore, it might have been too late for action.

From what I can tell from my afar-off perch, emergency management at Punto Gordo did their job at least adequately, as well. What may have impeded their work was bad journalism and a sizable special needs population, and it would do everyone well to develop strategies for getting the real message out effectively over media hype.

Some of the complacent emergency managers inland of Punto Gordo, though, have much, much more to think about. Charley is hardly the first powerful hurricane to cross the state, and, had they planned as they ought to have, they'd have had time for evacuations.

[donsutherland1]

Just a quick point:

I don't mean to blame the Emergency Planners; it would be premature to do anything like that. That's why I tried to qualify the language concerning the preparation and stated "Any failure to do so was not the TPC's fault..." If there was any failure--and I'm not sure that there was--it wouldn't lie with TPC. That was meant to be my point.