NWS AFD Melbourne

[TampaFl]

Thoughts and comments welcomed.

FXUS62 KMLB 150734
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...H5 VORT WHICH PROVIDED ENHANCEMENT YESTERDAY TO STORMS
(IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY) HAS PUSHED NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT
TRAILING VORT ENERGY EXTENDS SW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BAND
OF DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS OF 2"-2.25") IS SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AS RIDGING NOSES BACK IN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. LIKELY POPS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TODAY WILL AGAIN
COMPLICATE CLEAN-UP EFFORTS. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINES WITH WEAK VORT
AXIS AND S/SW SFC-H5 FLOW WILL PRODUCE A N TO NE STEERING FLOW.
SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS EXPECTED SE COAST AS E/SE FLOW DEVELOPS IN
SHARPENING H85-H7 RIDGE WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM RETURNING
TO THE MARTIN/ST LUCIE COASTS. SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
OR JUST INLAND OF INDIAN RIVER/BREVARD COUNTIES WILL MOVE GENERALLY
N WITH A MORE NE MOTION OVER VOLUSIA COUNTY AND ACROSS ADJACENT ATLC
WATERS.

MON-TUE...MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH LYING NORTH OF THE STATE
GETS NUDGED OUT OF THE PICTURE AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE PENINSULA. WEAKLY ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF WINDS ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS FOR PCPN IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL USE CLIMO NO'S BASED ON PWAT IN THE 1.7-1.8" RANGE
EACH DAY.

WED-THU...PRESSURE FALLS IN CARIB ASCD WITH NHC FORECAST OF TS EARL
SHOULD INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT LOCALLY. GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS INDICATED BY GFS EAST OF STATE AND SHOULD SEE
SOMEWHAT OF A GRADIENT SQUEEZE AT MIDWEEK WITH VEERING FLOW AS EARL
TRANSITS WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE. A STEADY INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS LIKELY AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE COAST AND MARINE
AREA FROM ISOLD TO SCT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WED NIGHT. THU
GFS INDICATES WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE PENINSULA WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. GENERAL REGIME REMAINS UNCHANGED
WITH CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND FOCUS OVER INTERIOR
FOR AFTERNOON PRECIP.

FRI-SAT...GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT BY THE EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DECENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE MS VALLEY ON FRI.
FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE OPENS UP SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE. MAY SEE RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...BUT WILL PLAY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ATTM
CONSIDERING PROSPECTS OF TC EARL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&
.MARINE...NO SIG WX IN THE NEAR TERM WITH WEAK REGIME FLOW TIED TO
DIURNAL INCREASES/DECREASES ASCD WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. AFTER
TODAY SEAS EXPECTED TO SETTLE BELOW 3 FT NEXT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 87 74 88 74 / 70 30 30 10
MCO 89 74 90 74 / 60 30 40 20
MLB 88 74 88 75 / 50 20 30 10
VRB 88 74 88 74 / 40 20 30 10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM...PENDERGRAST