Hurricane Center Defends

[crazycajuncane]

I think the media should be blamed for making a big deal out of Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg, instead of warning everyone within 100 miles that they were in danger. It was just too much talk about the "big cities".

I disagree, they did the best they could. IF the cane would have hit those BIG cities it would have been justified?? Think about it

It would have been well justified, but 80% of the talk was on Tampa and St. Petersburg..... very understandable, but there was less talk about other areas of Flordia.

[Tommedic]

I would like to interject the following. Anyone that has lived in the United States has seen this happen before. Each six hour update constantly refines the projected path. There is a center point to allow for the cone of alert as I call it to be posted. No one in the NHC has ever, to my reollection, identified a specific spot until about six hours before landfall. They have indicated that they feel comfortable with the models but I don't believe they really feel comfortable with a specific spot. Look at Andrew, Hugo, Fran, and others that were projected to turn and then didn't.
As for an EM specialist to throw blame at the NHC is, in my opinion, unprofessional and possibly just an attempt to keep attention away from their performance.

These are just my thoughts. If I offended anyone I apologize. I've been in Emergency Services for over 14 years. All EM directors that I have known would express appreciation to the NHC personnel for all their assistance.

[Guest]

The NHC posted hurricane warnings. They have always said,"If your in the warning area, you must prepare for huricane conditions!"
All of SW Fla was in the warning area, and some didn't prepare.
The NHC did what they were suppose to do. Those that were unprepared didn't do what they were suppsoe to do!
I have been preaching about preparedness for years, and I'm not out of breathe yet!
here you think it can't happen where you live. Local residents didn't even prepare, and the storm was 12 hours away from here in North Florida.
Maybe this will be a wake up call for those that believe "It won't hit here, they always turn!" That is the number one saying here in NE Fla when a hurricane develops! I just hope everyone is right!
Keep up the great work NHC!

[frederic79]

I live on the Mississippi coast and have for 38 years. We have had one Catagory 5 (Camille), two Catagory 3's, one Catagory 2 AND NUMEROUS NEAR MISSES during that time. For every hurricane we've had, we've probably been under watches and warnings 4 or 5 times over. My feeling is that some, especially new residents, just don't realize what could happen. Others know but just don't care enough because they've "come through storms before just fine". Still others feel they have enough time to react by waiting until the winds pick up. Some are just complacent because of so many "cry wolfs". Personally, I live at about 10 ft. elevation about 2 miles from the Gulf. If I even suspect we will receive a Cat. 3 or higher hit, I'm making reservations somewhere 100 miles inland 5 days out because I can always cancel them. Some people think I overreact; I just don't want to put my family at risk when I know what's coming. (I rode out George at 105 mph and vowed then not to do that anymore). A wise comment my father made recently was "you should prepare like you know it's coming here, and be very grateful if it goes somewhere else."

[HurricaneBill]

The way I see it, the outer edges of the cone mark the extreme paths the hurricane could take. Hurricane warnings were beyond the cone as they should be.

Steve Lyons kept saying there was the potential for rapid intensification of Charley.

A hurricane that suddenly begins to rapidly intensify close to shore is a meteorologist's worst nightmare.

Some notable examples:
The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane (A repeat scenario today would be just as catastrophic)

1957 Hurricane Audrey (Because 90% of the fatalities were African-American, some labeled the NHC as racist and murderers. Ultimately, it was public apathy to warnings that was the big killer.)

1964 Hurricane Cleo (8 hours prior to landfall on Florida, Cleo's sustained winds started to increase from 80 mph to 110 mph at landfall.)

1995 Hurricane Opal (Sustained winds increased from 90 mph to 150 mph in only 12 hours. This reduced evacuation time. Although Opal weakened prior to landfall, she still came onshore with sustained winds of 125 mph. The storm surge, however, was that of a Category 4 storm. Miraculously, none of the fatalities in Opal were due to the storm surge.)

[rbaker]

as mentioned on other post max mayfield may get rid of the line of where the center may pass. Too many people are paying attention to where the eye passed over, instead of where the hurricane warnings were. Many floridians i would estimate 80 pct have not been in a hurricane, let alone a major.
If charley had been a bigger storm before the core contracted into a 10 mile one, we would have seen even more damage than now, over a wider area. Remember the nhc does not do as good on intensity as they do on point of landfall. Like the previous post from Mississippi, to many times people have seen warnings up in their area, only to have nothing happen, just like me, because I was in the warning area north of tpa. Some people will become complacent because of this in our area.

[Guest]

There really isnt anything to defend for the WC, except maybe the 11 a.m. late intensity upgrade. Other than that, the criticism is completely unwarranted. For the EC of Florida and up the coast, there, warnings were issued late due to track forecasts that were too far to the east. Daytona only received 9 hours of lead time for the hurricane force winds. My guess is that their track forecast leaned slightly too much on GFDL (and most of the models). Only the AVNI had the system emerging inot the Atlantic and making that 3rd landfall

wrong. ETA mm5 NGM short-med range models all pointed towards orlando/daytona and offshore and a 3rd landfall eventually. unfortunately NHC and most mets banked on GFs, UK, canadian etc for guidance, while I personally did not.

[Guest]

ETA and particularly mm5/NGM also pushed for the slight angle to the right for landfall, within 10-20 miles N/S of the actual path.

[SouthernWx]

The very fact Charley was an extremely small major hurricane is a major reason NHC is catching so much flack....because if this hurricane had been the size of Hugo at landfall over Charlotte Harbor, it wouldn't have mattered where the forecast "line" crossed the Florida west coast. Tampa Bay would have seen gusts to hurricane force and several inches of rain....and the area from Sarasota to Naples/ Marco Island would have been devastated.

Similarly, if Charley had indeed made landfall over Tampa Bay as a large "Hugo-like" 140+ mph hurricane....the entire Florida west coast from Tarpon Springs southward to Naples would have experienced major hurricane conditions (110+ mph winds and high tides). Charlotte Harbor, Punta Gorda, and Captiva Island would still have been devastated...

NHC did an excellent job...and the EMA director of Charlotte County a disgrace. While much of the general public is clueless regarding hurricanes and the hurricane warning process, a county EMA director should know better.

[Stormsfury]

Very wise words of wisdom ...

I live on the Mississippi coast and have for 38 years. We have had one Catagory 5 (Camille), two Catagory 3's, one Catagory 2 AND NUMEROUS NEAR MISSES during that time. For every hurricane we've had, we've probably been under watches and warnings 4 or 5 times over. My feeling is that some, especially new residents, just don't realize what could happen. Others know but just don't care enough because they've "come through storms before just fine". Still others feel they have enough time to react by waiting until the winds pick up. Some are just complacent because of so many "cry wolfs". Personally, I live at about 10 ft. elevation about 2 miles from the Gulf. If I even suspect we will receive a Cat. 3 or higher hit, I'm making reservations somewhere 100 miles inland 5 days out because I can always cancel them. Some people think I overreact; I just don't want to put my family at risk when I know what's coming. (I rode out George at 105 mph and vowed then not to do that anymore). A wise comment my father made recently was "you should prepare like you know it's coming here, and be very grateful if it goes somewhere else."

[Stormsfury]

ETA and particularly mm5/NGM also pushed for the slight angle to the right for landfall, within 10-20 miles N/S of the actual path.

As I recall, the ETA also showed it very much stretched out along the trough as a line of thunderstorms ... the MM5, however, in picking up the vorticity structure of Charley ...

SF

[ColdFront77]

Each six hour update constantly refines the projected path.

Those six hour updates for Charley's forecast track were relatively consistent on subsquent updates for a
Tampa Bay area landfall to as many as 25 to 50 miles to my W and NW and even at least one forecast track
had it just about, if not over my location.

[Derek Ortt]

The ETA and NGM are not used because they have demonstrated zero skill in TC forecasting. In addition, they were designed solely for mid lats.

AVNI did better than did GFS control run

[MGC]

The NHC did a good job forecasting the probable landfall zone of Charley. They blew the intensity forecast. NHC said Charley could reach Cat 3 at landfall but he intensified to a Cat 4. I understand the lack of intensity forecasting skill. My only bone was the 11am advisory which we all know was inacurate. The NHC should give more frequent updates when a hurricane approaches land. The closer the hurricane approaches the more often the update should be. There is no reason a vortex message that reported rapid intensification should have been left out of the 11am advisory.......MGC

[Hurricanehink]

MGC, they had updates every hour after the 11 advisory. At 12 they said it was 95 miles south-southwest of Fort Myers. At 1 they gave advisory 11a, followed by a complete advisory at 2. People just don't pay as much attention to the public advisories, IMO. While the NHC should have upgraded it at 11, it was upgraded at 1 anyway. The public should pay attention to the updates, as the track doesn't change terribly much in 2 hours (this time was a rarity, and they did add a complete advisory at 2). Hopefully they will wait until 11 to get up to the minute information in the future. They probably write it up like 40 minutes beforehand...

[Derecho]

Anyone making critical prep decisions 4-5 hours before a landfall deserves whatever happens to them.

I still fail to see the practical relevance to the SW coast of FL of whatever the 11AM NHC advisory did or did not have.

The critical forecasts were the afternoon and evening BEFORE the storm. And based on the usual forecast skill, they were quite good forecasts. And the tracks showed the storm passing close by Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda.