96L INVEST begun...

[Ola]

Thunder44 wrote: If it develops it would feel the effects of the high pressure ridge in the atlantic and lift more poleward, gaining latitude in time. If it remains a wave, it will probably continue westward into South America.

Help me here because somewhat I thought that a high pressure ridge keep those systems going westward. Thanks .

You are correct Fego. I think he actually meant "feel the effects of the trough that will break down the ridge"

[Thunder44]

Thunder44 wrote: If it develops it would feel the effects of the high pressure ridge in the atlantic and lift more poleward, gaining latitude in time. If it remains a wave, it will probably continue westward into South America.

Help me here because somewhat I thought that a high pressure ridge keep those systems going westward. Thanks .

You are correct Fego. I think he actually meant "feel the effects of the trough that will break down the ridge"

No, the way I was thinking, is that high pressure ridge or the Azores high would generally keep supress the storm, but in time gain latitude because the flow around ridge is clockwise. It would eventually steer the system WNW in time, missing SA. A weaker, more shallow system would like head more due west.

[Guest]

I am not really impressed with the new invest. Sure is not much convection there. Florida in the afternoon for example looks better in the vis. It seems this yr the systems over in the Cape Verde are pooping out and the only one that did develop made a hard right turn. Little to hang a hat on fornately. Have a nice day.

[Ola]

Thunder44 wrote: If it develops it would feel the effects of the high pressure ridge in the atlantic and lift more poleward, gaining latitude in time. If it remains a wave, it will probably continue westward into South America.

Help me here because somewhat I thought that a high pressure ridge keep those systems going westward. Thanks .

You are correct Fego. I think he actually meant "feel the effects of the trough that will break down the ridge"

No, the way I was thinking, is that high pressure ridge or the Azores high would generally keep supress the storm, but in time gain latitude because the flow around ridge is clockwise. It would eventually steer the system WNW in time, missing SA. A weaker, more shallow system would like head more due west.

Ok, I see what you mean. But it was worded in a confusing way because it will turn poleward not because of feeling the effects of the High, but because it will start to feel LESS the effects of the high, and go with the flow on the western side oof the high which is clockwise and thus turn northwest.

[Anonymous]

First of all, I think this will develop, and be atleast a strong tropical storm. I think we may see a turn, but each moment it does not happen, it gets closer and closer to land. Plus, I do not see a weakness in the ridge occuring. The wave is moving too fast not to get to the islands. Now will it be a hurricane, maybe. But I do not see Fish, AT ALL. Just my two cents.