12:00 UTC models

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cycloneye
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12:00 UTC models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:55 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962004) ON 20040824 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040824 1200 040825 0000 040825 1200 040826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 32.1W 10.7N 34.8W 11.1N 37.4W 11.7N 39.7W
BAMM 10.3N 32.1W 10.7N 34.9W 11.0N 37.6W 11.5N 40.0W
A98E 10.3N 32.1W 10.6N 35.2W 10.8N 38.3W 11.1N 41.1W
LBAR 10.3N 32.1W 10.7N 35.0W 11.0N 38.0W 11.6N 41.1W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040826 1200 040827 1200 040828 1200 040829 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 41.8W 14.6N 44.9W 16.1N 46.9W 16.9N 48.6W
BAMM 12.4N 41.9W 14.3N 44.6W 15.8N 45.8W 17.0N 46.8W
A98E 11.3N 43.7W 11.6N 48.0W 11.3N 51.8W 11.2N 55.7W
LBAR 12.3N 44.0W 14.5N 48.5W 16.0N 51.1W 16.4N 52.6W
SHIP 62KTS 74KTS 81KTS 85KTS
DSHP 62KTS 74KTS 81KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 32.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 29.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 26.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Moving west 275 degrees 15kts at this run.
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The Dark Knight
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#2 Postby The Dark Knight » Tue Aug 24, 2004 8:02 am

Hmm....... Very interesting.....
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Derek Ortt

#3 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 24, 2004 8:40 am

I cannot ignore the global model consensus. Those moedels have problems with weaknesses and the like as they assume that conditions will remain the same throughout the period. Bets bet is still well out to sea
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#4 Postby TerryAlly » Tue Aug 24, 2004 9:28 am

The NHC models do seem reasonable ... will travel WNW and bypass islands
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