00Z GFS...Leftward Shift Again

[MWatkins]

The GFS guidance is still coming in...but through 150 hours it is WELL west of the previous run...although still too weak (probably) at 150 hours.

By that time the model has shifted the postion of TD6 to...oh..around 19.0/57.0 moving due west...whereas before it had the system at the same verify time at 22/50 moving nnw to nw.

Here's the track in the 850 vorticity fields:

old:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_162s.gif

new:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_150s.gif

Notice no hint of a trough at 500MB...and a much less amplified pattern than we saw in the last model run:

New:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150s.gif

Old:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162s.gif

Also..the GFS seems to like the wave behind this one...

MW

[Matthew5]

Thanks for the update Mw. I think also that the models will likely shift to the left with time. Maybe this storm maybe something more to watch.

[Derecho]

It ends up hitting North Carolina, of course, in 14 days, on the 00Z GFS.

[MWatkins]

It ends up hitting North Carolina, of course, in 14 days, on the 00Z GFS.

I can take that 2 ways...either...

1. NC is safe. The GFS is never right that far out.

2. The NC hurricane beacon has been turned on just in time for the peak of the season.

Of course the big argument against all of this is the 12Z euro's insistance that this system will be at 25/50 in 168 hours:

MW

[Derecho]

[quote="MWatkins]
Of course the big argument against all of this is the 12Z euro's insistance that this system will be at 25/50 in 168 hours:
MW[/quote]

I guess they're still waiting in Texas for Charley to come ashore there per the EC. (Waiting for DT to show up as he can instantly sense the Holy EC being criticized anywhere on the internet, I suspect.)