http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg
TD 10-E(EPAC) is HUGE!!!
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HurricaneGirl
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Sirocco
LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT.
THE ONLY QUESTION APPEARS TO BE IF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM (10E) SHOWING UP ON THE EXTENDED GFS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO ARIZONA IS TRUE. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES IN AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES. THE CANADIAN MODEL DOES NOT PICK UP ON THIS. IF INDEED THE EXTENDED GFS IS TRUE...THIS COULD BE A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE REGION...BUT AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME...THIS IS JUST SPECULATION.
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/az/discussion.html
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL SHIFT TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR 13N107W THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW. GFS MODEL CONTINUED TO SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY MID NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING PULLED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO WILL BE OUTSIDE OUR 7 DAY FORECAST...BUT THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE SOMETHING TO DEAL WITH STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
THE ONLY QUESTION APPEARS TO BE IF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM (10E) SHOWING UP ON THE EXTENDED GFS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO ARIZONA IS TRUE. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES IN AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES. THE CANADIAN MODEL DOES NOT PICK UP ON THIS. IF INDEED THE EXTENDED GFS IS TRUE...THIS COULD BE A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE REGION...BUT AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME...THIS IS JUST SPECULATION.
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/az/discussion.html
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL SHIFT TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR 13N107W THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW. GFS MODEL CONTINUED TO SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY MID NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING PULLED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO WILL BE OUTSIDE OUR 7 DAY FORECAST...BUT THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE SOMETHING TO DEAL WITH STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
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