12Z EURO

[ameriwx2003]

I know alot of people regard the EURO very highly so I have been following the trend and the West trend in the EURO model as each run goes by contnues:):)

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4082612!!/[/url]

[PurdueWx80]

Looks to have a major hurricane north of Puerto Rico at 168 hours out. It does have a weakness in the ridge to the NW of the storm, but no trough to actually recurve it. This morning's run would imply a Labor Day weekend risk from NC to MD (Mid-Atlantic).

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Poor NC....

[Guest]

if it hits nc and then recurves, it would come up here most likely. If it comes into virginia at all, they generally cancel school. So if this comes in on labor day and we lose power, the first day of school will be held off!

[Weatherboy1]

In addition to the Euro, the GFS shows a weakness in the ridge close in to the US coast. And the 12UTC GFS shows Frances curving WNW, then NW and N into that weakness, before getting steered out to sea -- without hitting the US coast at all.

Trouble is -- all these forecasts are in the 5+ day range so none of them are good for more than getting a general idea of the synoptic setup. My take: WNW/NW for 3 days, then back W or WNW for 3 days, then ... ? This could get as close to FL as Floyd in 1999 ... it could hook north earlier like Fabian and never hit the US ... or it could end up being an Isabel, curving E of the Bahamas toward NC. If I were a betting man ... at this point ... I would guess the FL peninsula is in the clear due to that lingering ridge weakness off the SE coast (the same thing that helped turn Isabel). But I truly believe we won't have a better idea until Sunday ... and possibly as late as Tuesday ... who needs to put up shutters and who doesn't.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

if it hits nc and then recurves, it would come up here most likely. If it comes into virginia at all, they generally cancel school. So if this comes in on labor day and we lose power, the first day of school will be held off!

YOUR LUCKY...school started here on Sept 9th.

[Guest]

In addition to the Euro, the GFS shows a weakness in the ridge close in to the US coast. And the 12UTC GFS shows Frances curving WNW, then NW and N into that weakness, before getting steered out to sea -- without hitting the US coast at all.

Trouble is -- all these forecasts are in the 5+ day range so none of them are good for more than getting a general idea of the synoptic setup. My take: WNW/NW for 3 days, then back W or WNW for 3 days, then ... ? This could get as close to FL as Floyd in 1999 ... it could hook north earlier like Fabian and never hit the US ... or it could end up being an Isabel, curving E of the Bahamas toward NC. If I were a betting man ... at this point ... I would guess the FL peninsula is in the clear due to that lingering ridge weakness off the SE coast (the same thing that helped turn Isabel). But I truly believe we won't have a better idea until Sunday ... and possibly as late as Tuesday ... who needs to put up shutters and who doesn't.

From NWS Miami

THE FRONT AND THE THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN BY MIDDLE NEXT WEEK ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD GET BACK INTO A SUMMER TIME PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK..AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES EAST SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLAND LATE THIS MORNING.


I would not put anyone in the clear right now,its still 10 days away.

[Dean4Storms]

The ridging could be strong enough to force Frances even into as far south as south Florida at this point. Nobody is in the clear yet with this storm!