MORNING STORM2K TROPICAL UPDATE, AUGUST 28, 2004

[vbhoutex]

Major Hurricane Frances continues to move toward the Northwest and has strengthened and slowed her forward speed a little this morning. At 11am Frances was located near Lat. 17.4N, Lon. 51.9W or about 685 miles East of the Northern Lesser Antilles. Her current forward speed is at 9 mph and she is expected to continue this speed and track for the next day or so with a turn back toward the West-northwest beginning during this time frame also. Maximum sustained winds are 120mph with higher gusts and even though Hurricane Frances is moving toward an area of Southwesterly shear to the her West she should continue to slowly strengthen since this shear will probably be gone by the time she gets to that area. This should bring Frances to a Category4 status by late tomorrow. After an apparent eye replacement and expansion cycle overnight the hurricane force winds now extend up to 30 miles from the center with tropical storm force winds extending up to 105 miles from the center. Estimated central pressure in Frances is now 958mb or 28.29". Due to the fact that the expected turn back to the West-Northwest or West should begin within the next 24 hours and the continued strengthening and expansion of Frances all interests in the Northeast Caribbean and the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Frances and be prepared to begin preparations for a Hurricane if watches or warnings are issued in the next few days. If the turn is quicker or sharper than anticipated this dangerous hurricane could end up passing over some of the island chain as opposed to passing by to the North. In the long term there is currently nothing in the models that suggests that Frances will deviate from the WNW or West course once she makes the turn back that way as the subtropical ridge to her North is still expected to very strong and stretching West across Florida into the Northern Gulf of Mexico. All interests along the, Eastern US coast should begin to follow Frances' track especially after the more Westerly turn is made giving us a better idea of what areas might be affected by the probable landfall of Hurricane Frances somewhere along the the Southeastern US coast in the next 7-10 days depending on her forward speed.

Td7 has continued to organize overnight and this morning and is now Tropical Storm Gaston with maximum winds of 40 mph and higher gusts in squalls to the East of the center. Currently tropical storm force winds extend up to 60 miles from the center of Gaston. At 11am EDT the center of Gaston was located near Lat. 31.4N, lon. 78.5W about 135 miles Southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Central pressure in Gaston is estimated to be 1009mb or 29.80". Gaston is slowly drifting Westward, basically stationary, and is expected to continue this Westerly drift with an increase in speed toward the coast later today possibly bringing the storm onto or very near the South Carolina coast tomorrow. Tropical storm warnings are now in effect from the Savannah River to Little River inlet with tropical storm watches in effect North of Little River Inlet to Surf City, North Carolina and South of The Savannah River to Fernandina Beach, Fl. A reconnaissance of Gaston is scheduled for this afternoon. Residents along the coast in the warned areas should prepare for a strong tropical storm immediately. Rains along the path of Gaston can be expected to be in the 3"-6" range raising concerns about possible flooding in areas near the its path. Tides along the coast are predicted to be in the 1-3 foot range. As a trough approaches from the West tomorrow Gaston should begin to turn more toward the North then Northeast and accelerate in forward speed.

The low pressure area about 225 miles South-southwest of Bermuda has continued to organize and could become a tropical depression later today. This developing disturbance is expected to move slowly to the Northwest. Storm2k forecasters are monitoring all of these systems and will report changes to you as they occur.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin no tropical storm formation is expected through Sunday.

This is not an official product. For an official product contact your local NWS or the NHC.

by David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)