Frances and Gaston at 5 PM EDT

[WXBUFFJIM]

A very busy evening in the Atlantic tropics as we got two tropical systems to deal with and possibly a third one, which could develop closer to Bermuda. Hurricane Frances has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Scale while Tropical Storm Gaston has strengthened to 50 mph at 5 PM EDT.

Taking a look at the more immediate concern, which is Tropical Storm Gaston. A hurricane watch is in effect along the South Carolina coast from the Savannah River to Little River Inlet. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the next 36 hours. Hurricane warnings maybe required for portions of this area on Sunday.

A tropical storm warning is in effect along the South Carolina coast from Savannah River to Little River Inlet. A tropical Storm watch is in effect along the southeastern U.S. coast north of Little River Inlet up to Surf City, NC and south of the Savannah River to Fernandina Beach, Florida.

At 5 PM EDT, Gaston is centered near latitude 31.4 north, longitude 78.9 west or about 115 miles Southeast of Charleston, SC. Gaston is drifting westward and a slow motion towards the northwest and north is expected during the next 24 hours. Reports from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected and Gaston could approach hurricane strength as it approaches the South Carolina coast later Sunday.

Minimum central pressure is reported to be 996 mb or 29.41 inches. Storm surge flooding of 3-5 feet above normal tide level is expected just to the right from where the center crosses the coast. Locally higher surge levels are possible in bays. Rainfall total of 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts possibly up over a foot is possible in the path of Gaston. Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into Sunday, especially along and to the northeast of the center of circulation. Tornado watches maybe needed later tonight for portions of the South and North Carolina coasts. This will continue to be monitored over the next several days as landfall becomes more and more immient. This is only one system we need to deal with. While the Carolina coast needs rain, too much rain is not a good thing. Rainfall totals of 8-12 inches can easily cause flooding, which is something to consider.

Frances, this thing is a monster. Frances is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Scale. A tropical storm watch maybe needed for portions of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday as the outer rain bands from the hurricane affect the area. Higher than normal surf is expected in this area as well.

At 5 PM EDT, Frances was centered near latitude 17.9 north, 52.6 west, or about 690 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Frances is moving towards the northwest at near 9 mph and a turn towards the west or west northwest is expected over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are up to near 135 mph with higher gusts making Frances a category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson scale. A category 4 hurricane has sustained winds from 131 to 155 mph and can cause extreme devastation. Frances has a good possibility on more than one occasion to strengthen to a category 5 on the saffir simpson scale. A category 5 has sustained winds over 155 mph. Looking at satellite presentations of Frances, it's easy to see why she's a category 4 hurricane. The eye is 20 nautical miles in diameter. Surrounding the eye is the central dense overcast and it's a very symmetric hurricane at this point. Outflow is also excellent in all four quadrants of the hurricane. Another look at the satellite shows that Frances essentially has that buzzsaw look to it and that doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon.

Looking at category 5 hurricanes of the past shows some key hurricanes, which remained category 5 status for a long period of time. Hurricane Isabel was a category 5 hurricane for 35 consecutive hours. After weakening to category 4, it regained category 5 status. Isabel was a category 5 twice. Meanwhile Hurricane Dog was a category 5 hurricane for over 60 consecutive hours, which is just unprecedented. This is something to think about if and when Frances becomes a category 5 hurricane. It appears the best chance Frances becomes a category 5 hurricane will be later in the forecast as she approaches the Bahamas as a rough to the east of the hurricane is expected to enhance the outflow. This is definitely something folks along the southeast coast of the United States need to pay special attention to over the next 5-7 days as we could see a potentially dangerous and deadly hurricane approaching the southeast United States coast by Friday, particularily down in Florida at this point. This is subject to change, however this is a hurricane that needs to be taken very seriously and we'll see how this thing behaves as we go on through the next couple of days.

Jim

[rainstorm]

thanks for the info

[WXBUFFJIM]

Latest recon shows an estimated pressure down to 994 mb and a closed wall. This system may become a hurricane either later tonite or early in the day on Sunday. I suspect the landfall will be very near Charleston, SC by later Sunday and we could see winds 80-90 mph in a small area near the center of circulation. I think given the timing over warm water and the favorable atmospheric environment this is working with, it will be a hurricane at landfall with possibly 80-90 mph winds and higher gusts. At least that remains a possibility.

Jim

[Three Blind Mice]

Thanks. One point that I think is in error, the Carolina coast does not need any rain. We are drenched!! Don't go by long term shortfalls.

[WXBUFFJIM]

We can only hope this moves faster than expected and brings less rain to an area already drenched. Long terms show below normal rains in many spots. But really to be honest, it's been very wet this month for the Carolina coast with Alex, Bonnie, Charley, and also now Gaston becoming an issue. 4 tropical systems in one month along the Carolina coast, amazing stuff.

[krisj]

Yes! Wet indeed here. I was surprised how dark it was out at 5pm tonight. ALready is looking alot like when Charley came through here.