NHC forecast matches guidance

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Derek Ortt

NHC forecast matches guidance

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:48 pm

The latest NHC forecast is in VERY good agreement with the latest guidance. The guidance that is shown on the web sites is about 25% of the available data. If anything, the track (and mine as well) is too far south
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BensonTCwatcher
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#2 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:57 pm

Derek,

Is it not true that Frances will naturally track poleward if the sterring features are not strong enough to overcome the "mass: and rotation?
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BensonTCwatcher
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#3 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:58 pm

....hence the model guidance you mentioned?
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Derek Ortt

#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:59 pm

it has to do with agston's weakness, and with gaston becoming much strnger by the minute, it may leave somewhat of a weakness. However, not enough to clear the entire coast
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BensonTCwatcher
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#5 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:02 pm

Thanks, Gaston is interesting in that it did not seem to show up on nay models 72 hrs ago?
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Anonymous

#6 Postby Anonymous » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:05 pm

Safe to say carolinas?
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Stormcenter
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Frances

#7 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:23 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:it has to do with agston's weakness, and with gaston becoming much strnger by the minute, it may leave somewhat of a weakness. However, not enough to clear the entire coast


I just talked my brother in N.O. and he said a local met there
mentioned the possible scenario you referring to on your post but said this evening it seem more and more unlikely at the moment. He thought it was looking more and like Frances would head into the GOM after crossing Florida. I think he said it was on WWL Channel 4.

Oh well we just wait and see. I have feeling the models with do a little more a flipping and flopping before everything is said and done.
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Three Blind Mice
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#8 Postby Three Blind Mice » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:24 pm

starting to feel a Lot like Floyd!! Slowly taking the walk up the coast. Scaring the bejez out of everyone.

Plenty of time to prep. No need to panic. Just get your self organized. Sounds trivial to some but WTSHTF......
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Anonymous

#9 Postby Anonymous » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:26 pm

Stormcenter...your brother is exactly correct, I can confirm what he told you. I heard it on the late 10:00pm news, on WWL-TV and he gave his explanation as to why.
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#10 Postby B-Bear » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:26 pm

Question: How far north along the coast do the SSTs stay warm enough to maintain Frances' intensity?
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