Gary Gray of millenium weather

[Vortex]

always writes a nice discussion. His updated 4 pm forecastor an excerpt from his forecast is as follows:

So, what this all means is that I'm anticipating a track most similar to the ECMWF, with Frances making landfall over southern Florida.

[Brent]

I read his discussions religiously during Isabel. I need to start back for Frances.

[USAwx1]

always writes a nice discussion. His updated 4 pm forecastor an excerpt from his forecast is as follows:

So, what this all means is that I'm anticipating a track most similar to the ECMWF, with Frances making landfall over southern Florida.

The 0z ECMWF has 500mb ridge centered over the Mid Atlantic region w/ no signs of the weakness coming through the MS valley--something which the 12z GFS was more enthusiastic about. This is the reason why the 0z ECMWF takes it onto SFL.

So, just as the position of the mean-layer ridge will be critical to determining the track of Frances, so will the weakness over the MS valley. the key is in the synoptic set-up.

[JTD]

Link? I can't find it on the site?

[Yankeegirl]

So if it hits southern Fla, does that mean its going to go to the Gulf?

[Steve]

I'm not much of a fan of that site. The traintech model is useless, and he was TERRIBLE in 2002 but spun his forecast like it was all that. Maybe I should give him another chance or something.

Steve

[Brent]

Link? I can't find it on the site?

http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/discuss.html

[Brent]

So if it hits southern Fla, does that mean its going to go to the Gulf?

If it crosses South Florida, yes.