CRUCIAL Frances model data for 5+ days is from CANADA....

[Derecho]

Not from the G-IV recon......

What really affects any possible turn days 5-7 really has very little to do with any data from the Gulfstream recon jet....

What will affect that is currently over British Columbia....

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

"MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BUCKLING OF THE SEMIZONAL
THE WESTERLIES AS ENERGY DROPS SEWD DOWN THE B.C. COAST CARVING
OUT A WRN TROF WITH DOWNSTREAM HT RISE OVER ERN CONUS WITH A
BUILDING W ATCL RIDGE. THIS RIDGING ALLOWS OFFSHORE VERY STRONG
HURCN FRANCES TO AFFECT THE FL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST OR GULF
COAST STATES NEXT WEEKEND."


If there's any change in the longer term turn tonight on the models, it will more likely because of a weather balloon launched in Western Canada than from any recon.

The recon does matter in terms of model movement over the next 2-3 days...which, indirectly, does affect any turn days 5-7, because it matters where the storm would begin any interaction with any troughing.

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks, Derecho. Clicked and read it all. I'm a believer.

[JTD]

I live in British Columbia.

Ask me for any updates.

[Aquawind]

I hear ya..already posted this discussion..but it's verbage worth repeating..

[RichG]

a trough in the wesstern us will creat ridging in the east which will be the driving force which will push fran into florida? the trough in in the west which creates the problem for us in in the east. Am I wrong?

[kevin]

Good point Derecho. I for one am amazed at the amount of data those models process through.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Point taken Derecho. Guess we'll have to stick with the models.

[GulfBreezer]

What is it with Canes crossing the Fl peninsula this year??

[Guest]

Its amazing how much information is availible out there for us to read. Thanks Derecho, every little bit of information helps us to learn, and you and MWatkins keep supplying us with crucial information, thanks again.
It never stops amazing me how the worlds weather is so complex and integrated.

Brian

[Stormsfury]

What is it with Canes crossing the Fl peninsula this year??

How about me in South Carolina? Alex, Bonnie, Charley, and now Gaston ... and it all comes down to the medium pattern ...

and look at the ridging (HIGH) in the Atlantic, and the trough in the Upper Midwest ... the corridor brought Gaston up into Central South Carolina ... and has been the general pattern in the month of August ...

[mobilebay]

Its amazing how much information is availible out there for us to read. Thanks Derecho, every little bit of information helps us to learn, and you and MWatkins keep supplying us with crucial information, thanks again.
It never stops amazing me how the worlds weather is so complex and integrated.

Brian

I agree. Derocho and MWatkins are the very best. I respect there opinion as much as anybodies.