STORM2K ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE, August 30, 2004

[vbhoutex]

Hurricane Frances continues her Westward trek across the Atlantic and is nearing the Northern Leeward Islands. Currently located near Lat. 19.0N, Lon. 57.3W Frances is 385 miles East of the islands. Due to the fact Frances is a large and still powerful Category 3 Hurricane, tropical storm warnings are now in effect in Antiqua, Barbuda, St. Maarteen, Anguilla, Nevis, St. Kitts, St. Eustatius and Saba. Hurricane Watches are in effect for the British and Northern U.S. Virgin Islands and for Culebra and Vieques. If Hurricane Frances continues on her current track Hurricane Watches can be anticipated in Puerto Rico today also. Frances is currently traveling Westward at 10 mph a small step up from her speed yesterday. This direction should continue for the next 24-36 hours with some increase in the forward speed expected.Current maximum winds in Hurricane Frances have decreased to 10 mph. However, she is still a dangerous hurricane and once the shear that is affecting her decreases Frances should begin another strengthening trend and could once again become a Major Category 3 or 4 hurricane as she approaches the Bahamas. Currently the hurricane force winds in Frances extend up to 85 miles from the center with tropical storm winds extending out to 125 miles. Central pressure is at 958 mb or 28.29". Frances' Westward track should continue as she rides along the Southern periphery of the very strong subtropical ridge to her North for at least the next 72 hours. After that time some models indicate a weakening in the ridge which could allow Frances to begin a more WNW or NW track, All interests in the Northern Leeward Islands which are currently under tropical storm warnings or hurricane watches should be rushing preparations to completion as necessary for conditions expected in their areas. All interests in the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and along the U.S. East coast from the Florida Keys to the Outer Banks should be closely monitoring Frances' progress at this time and be prepared to take actions if and when watches or warnings are raised in your area.

Tropical Storm Gaston has been downgraded to a tropical depression and is currently centered over Eastern North Carolina. He has been dumping copious rains along his path and some flooding is occurring due to this and can also possibly be expected as the remains of Gaston pass over areas in Virginia and North and Northeast of his current position.

Tropical storm Hermine is currently moving North at about 18 mph about 495 miles South of Chatham Massachusetts. Located at lat. 34.6N, lon. 71.5N. Hermine has winds near 50 mph with some higher gusts. Hermine is headed into cooler waters and is expected to begin a turn toward the Northeast and increase her forward speed during the next 24 hours while becoming a tropical depression. The current forecast track takes Hermine very near to or just East of Cape Cod during this time frame.

A tropical wave between the Cape Verde Islands appears to be continuing to organize. Conditions out ahead of this disturbance appear to be favorable for further development of this system as it continues Westward in the far Eastern Atlantic.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin no tropical storm development is expected through Tuesday.

This is not an official product. For an official product contact the NHC or your local NWS office for details of effects expected in your immediate area.

by David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)