12Z Canadian Shifts north quite a bit....

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Derecho
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12Z Canadian Shifts north quite a bit....

#1 Postby Derecho » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:18 am

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Windsong
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#2 Postby Windsong » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:33 am

Derecho...what are your thoughts at this point?
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#3 Postby soonertwister » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:08 pm

A 974 mb low represents a Cat-1. We can only hope Frances has weakened to that at landfall, wherever it is.
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Derek Ortt

#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:10 pm

974 is a cat 2 and that model started at about 1010mb. It shows significant intensification
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#5 Postby PurdueWx80 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:27 pm

Yes, you have to remember this is a global model with low resolution. You have to understand that the 12Z model shows very rapid intensification up until landfall. That part is more important than the actual pressure shown. Extrapolating, you would have to cut 50 mb off of that if the model deepening is correct, which would easily make this a Cat 5 at landfall. But, it's just a model, not the real atmosphere.
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